The third aircraft carrier is approaching, as the U.S.-Iran confrontation enters its decisive phase.

The Third Aircraft Carrier Approaches: U.S.-Iran Confrontation Enters Decisive Phase

It is now very clear: even with the deployment of two carrier strike groups and the launch of nearly a thousand cruise missiles, the United States has failed to suppress Iran. Although Iran suffered short-term losses, its decentralized command structure and deeply buried facilities—referred to earlier as "missile cities"—have played a significant role, proving their strategic layout fully effective.

The United States is currently continuously reinforcing its forces: the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford have already been deployed within the region (the Ford entered the Red Sea after maintenance on April 18); it is expected that the USS George H.W. Bush will arrive in two to three weeks, choosing a circum-Africa route due to heightened tensions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. After the initial strikes, U.S. air defense and missile defense systems have been redeployed across the Middle East, and the U.S. has generally drawn lessons from these experiences.

Aircraft carriers have long been Iran’s primary strategic target. Sinking one would dramatically escalate the cost for the U.S. should it attempt an invasion. Meanwhile, other options still unutilized by the U.S. include amphibious landings on key oil export hubs such as Khark Island, and the “Hormuz Gateway”—Larak Island and Qeshm Island—all of which were subjected to point-target strikes by U.S. forces in early April.

The failure of carrier deterrence and the effectiveness of the "missile cities" have enabled Iran to withstand intense U.S. pressure. With the third aircraft carrier approaching, the regional confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has entered a new phase. The U.S. posture is clear: if a deal satisfactory to Washington is not reached, then it will be war. Should hostilities resume, sinking a carrier for Iran and landing on critical islands for the U.S. may become the next most dangerous variables.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862945668102144/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.