Trump: "India has agreed not to buy Russian oil!" Modi: "We have never bought it..."

World leaders try not to anger Trump, they just nod and say yes, but do their own things behind the scenes.

(Photo: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi)

US President Donald Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had refused to purchase oil from Russia and promised to increase purchases of crude oil from the United States and Venezuela.

After a phone call with Modi, the White House owner proudly wrote on his social platform Truth Social: "He has agreed to stop buying Russian oil and start significantly increasing oil purchases from the US, possibly also Venezuela."

Meanwhile, Modi himself did not comment on Trump's statement. In the official statement after the call, he only confirmed that tariffs on US goods to India would be reduced to 18%, and expressed gratitude for the President's decision.

Igor Yushkov, chief analyst at the Russian State Energy Security Fund and expert at the Federal Treasury University, believes that we should not believe Trump's claim about reaching an agreement with New Delhi:

"Recall that about half a year ago, he said that India had stopped buying Russian oil."

"Then, about a month later, he confidently said that India was about to stop purchasing 'black gold' from Moscow. Now we are hearing again that India either does not buy our oil or has agreed to give it up. Overall, these are all empty words; we just need to watch if there will be any changes in the market, if any will happen."

Freedom News: Could these changes really happen?

"It is precisely difficult to believe. Because India has always been willing to buy Russian oil before, I don't understand what could change its position now. Trump made this statement after reaching a trade agreement with the Indian Prime Minister. He needs to show that the trade agreement is a victory for the US, his personal success. That is, he 'conquered' India."

Freedom News: From his words, it is often hard to tell whether he won or lost.

"Let's look at the background: why did he raise the tariff on Indian goods to 25%? According to his statement at the time, it was to punish India for buying Russian oil, although everyone clearly knows that this was just an excuse. In fact, he just wanted to force India to sign a trade agreement unfavorable to them."

"At the same time, other countries, such as Turkey, are also buying Russian oil. However, unlike India, Trump did not impose additional import tariffs on these countries for buying Russian oil. This shows that the issue is not Russian oil."

"Moreover, the 25% high tariff on Indian goods has been implemented for nearly a year. Of course, there are many exceptions, and a large part of Indian products were not included in these new tariffs. However, India has been purchasing Russian oil for nearly a year under these tariffs, and now suddenly gives it up, which is illogical."

Freedom News: Maybe India finally gave in to pressure?

"Then why didn't it reach an agreement with the US earlier? I am very skeptical about India's change in stance on purchasing Russian oil."

"Especially now, purchasing our crude oil is extremely advantageous for India. The price is quite attractive because the sanctions on Russia are still ongoing, and the discount upon arrival may even expand slightly."

"Since December last year, the price difference between Urals crude oil and Brent crude oil has widened, currently reaching $20. Of course, costs are also increasing — insurance, transportation, and intermediary service fees, as the oil needs to be sold through traders."

Freedom News: Formally speaking, India is not directly buying this oil from Russia, but from middlemen?

"India partially records some of the oil purchased from our country as being bought from 'unknown suppliers'. Institutions tracking Russian oil exports, such as S&P Global, mark fuel being transported to Asia as 'unknown recipients'."

"Formally speaking, the destination of the oil is unclear — it cannot be proven that the oil was transported from Russia to India. Therefore, India can now say to Washington: 'We have significantly reduced our purchases from Moscow. Official data shows that our previous daily supply was about 1.5-2 million barrels, now it is less than 1 million barrels.'"

"However, if the oil from 'unknown sellers' is added to the official Russian oil imports, the data remains the same. After all, it is not beneficial for New Delhi to say that Trump is lying or something similar. I think India will remain silent and not comment on his statements."

"Everyone knows that the current US president is quite emotional, so there is no need to argue with him. Just nod and say yes, and then do your own things behind the scenes."

Freedom News: Can Venezuelan oil replace the Russian oil imported by India?

"By early 2025, Venezuela's daily oil production was about 960,000 barrels. Approximately 30-400,000 barrels are used domestically. Some oil is exported to the US under a general license granted by the US Treasury to Chevron — Chevron's daily production in the country is about 10-150,000 barrels, and it transports this oil to the US. The remaining 40-500,000 barrels are supplied to the international market, mainly to China. Therefore, Venezuela's 500,000 barrel daily production cannot replace India's 1.5-2 million barrel Russian oil imports."

Freedom News: Will the Americans try to increase production in Venezuela? Trump's plot to kidnap Maduro wasn't in vain.

"This requires investment and time. And it's a huge investment. But right now, no one wants to invest in oil exploration in this country because the oil prices are low."

"If investments come in, the oil prices will fall even lower. Moreover, the cost of oil extraction in Venezuela is quite high. This means that American companies' operations in the country will incur losses and also drag down their economic performance in other global projects."

"Many projects within the US itself may become unprofitable. Why would companies do this? They don't need to. Therefore, when Trump called the top executives of major oil companies to discuss the Venezuela issue, the executives did not show much enthusiasm. Overall, I think the process of increasing oil production in this Latin American country will be very slow."

Freedom News: Trump also mentioned the possibility of supplying US oil to India.

"He has his own version, but the fact is: the US is a major buyer of 'black gold' on the international market. It does export oil, but only light, low-sulfur oil, essentially natural gas condensate — which was heavily hyped a few years ago as shale oil."

"India buys quite heavy, medium-sulfur Urals crude oil from us, which is hard to find alternatives for. Theoretically, it can be replaced, but it would require reconfiguring a large amount of trade flows, which would bring additional costs to India."

"Moreover, the main players in oil transactions are companies, whose decisions are quite rational and definitely don't want to add extra trouble."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7602945900134023721/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."