Israel Launches Anti-Iran "Special Military Operation," How Will Russia Respond?
Iran-Israel Tensions Escalate
Author: Andrei Pintchouk
Dozens of Israeli fighter jets attacked Iran, senior Iranian generals were killed, including the Revolutionary Guard Corps commander General Hossein Salami and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Baqeri. Reports also indicated that several top Iranian nuclear scientists lost their lives. Beyond the geopolitical dimension, this conflict has several key points Moscow needs to pay special attention to – not only because Russia has interests in Iran.
It is worth noting that recently Russia and Iran signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which includes military cooperation clauses. Therefore, as a Russian ally, Iran's exposure to Israeli conflict directly concerns us.
Russia has established a complex relationship with Israel since the Soviet era. Despite Israel's fluctuating stance, it has long acted as an unstable but reliable ally for Russia (even now).
The current situation has fundamentally changed, one of the landmark events being Israel's announcement of providing Ukraine with "Patriot" air defense systems. Although the statement was later revised, it clearly indicates an information camouflage strategy.
Israel Promises to Provide Ukraine with "Patriot" Air Defense Systems Obtained from the U.S.
Clearly, the so-called "direct delivery" actually involves third-party intermediaries, but this action marks a negative turn in relations between Israel and Russia, which is directly related to the strengthening of Russia-Iran relations. Therefore, under the backdrop of Israeli attacks, issues concerning Russia-Iran relations are directly linked to Russia's foreign policy. In addition, beyond diplomatic levels, there are several practical problems that need urgent attention.
"Boxing" Style Strikes
The core issue lies in the similarities and differences between Israel's current actions and "special military operations." Understanding this is crucial to correctly evaluating the progress of the operation, potential consequences, and the mechanisms used.
Looking at Israel's approach: it continuously employs special means – intelligence agency tools and accompanying armed forces (sometimes missiles, sometimes airstrikes, sometimes so-called "precise elimination" operations) to prevent Iran from becoming a regional nuclear power.
This is like a boxing match: when one side is knocked down and tries to get up to continue fighting, the opponent repeatedly strikes its head and vital areas with devastating blows, preventing it from standing firm. Israel's continuous strikes on Iran aim to prevent it from completing its nuclear program and establishing a stable position.
From this perspective, Israel's actions differ sharply from "special military operations" – the former focuses on "special" (С) rather than "military" (В), with military means (including missile strikes) serving only as support for special operations. For example, last night's Israeli strike on Iran's highest command structure was astonishingly precise:
Such precision could not be achieved without extremely detailed intelligence information, which must be obtained through multiple channels – including human intelligence channels, even infiltrating the immediate environment of Iran's highest military leadership.
Therefore, first there exists an already infiltrated and defected intelligence network; second, intelligence is transmitted in real time to decision-making centers; finally, decision-making centers receive and process information in real-time online mode and issue instructions, which are then delivered to execution units (including missile forces), ultimately implementing precise strikes based on decisions.
Israeli Army Publishes Map of Struck Iranian Areas
Video Source: Telegram Channel
Israel Learns Lessons from "Special Military Operations," What About Us?
We see a combined algorithm of military and special operations. If we look back at our own questions, one of the core factors is "speed" – the accuracy of intelligence information, the speed of decision-making based on intelligence, and the subsequent precision of actions.
Another core aspect is the military factor itself: the current situation is not a "total war," as total war requires ground troop advances – such as soldiers, armies crossing borders to march toward enemy capitals, controlling territories, etc. (similar to our action launched on February 24, 2022).
Clearly, Israel is striving to avoid this model, and I believe this conclusion is drawn after a detailed study of the "special military operation."
There is a key difference here: for us, Ukraine is a brother nation sharing the same faith, ethnicity, and history; while for Israel, Iran is an adversary nation – unlike the Arabs living in Palestine (Arabs and Jews belong to the same Semitic group and share blood ties), Persians have neither religious nor ethnic connections with Israel. Therefore, Israel cannot expect local civilian support, which is one of the key differences in its operational model compared to ours.
However, the fact is: Israel can achieve its goals without ground operations.
By avoiding ground operations, Israel sidesteps the "positional warfare" predicament we face, as well as the transition from positional warfare to mobile warfare – these problems arise precisely due to the involvement of ground troops.
I believe that after studying the "special military operation," Israel concluded that it must minimize the proportion of conventional military forces to avoid issues such as battlefield isolation and supply shortages. Therefore, Israel directly eliminated the ground operation phase in its anti-Iranian "special military operation."
Of course, this prevents it from occupying Iran or exerting political control, but evidently Israel does not need such things – it just needs to maintain Iran in a specific "state," including containing its nuclear program and economic development to prevent a significant increase in its strength.
Inertia and Costs of Iran's Military Elite
Moreover, it must be pointed out that the mistakes of Iran's military and political leadership: this Israeli operation may have been anticipated early, and similar potential attacks were known. More importantly, Iran had already declared a state of war, with the military raised to its highest alert level, yet the strikes still precisely hit the residences and offices of the leadership.
Under normal circumstances, military leaders should retreat to bunkers, trenches, or air-raid shelters, but Iran's leadership did not take personal safety measures.
This inertia led to tragic consequences, reflecting the psychological detachment of Iran's elite class from the realities of military operations and personal comfort.
As a certain classical writer once said: when field commanders leave their trenches and troop quarters to live in villas and comfortable palaces, the army begins to disintegrate. This is an example of how wartime military leadership should remain, while this incident fully demonstrates the cost of inertia.
Iran Has the Capability to Counter Israel
Perfect Operational Paradigm: What Russia Needs to Pay Attention To
To reiterate the core issue: how to solve political tasks through special means (which we have emphasized since the start of the "special military operation"), military means must directly rely on the efficiency of intelligence agencies. When military tools begin to replace intelligence tools, the key lies in speed, timeliness, information sufficiency, and accuracy (such as obtaining precise intelligence on leadership positions).
We know that to obtain such precise operational intelligence, Israel must conduct comprehensive monitoring of each leadership target through human intelligence networks and technical surveillance networks – previous incidents of captured Israeli intelligence personnel confirm this.
Next is technical precision: satellite guidance accuracy, strike weapon accuracy, delivery tool accuracy, and decision-making speed. These cases and experiences are worthy of our in-depth study. I suggest that Russian special forces and military high-ranking representatives carefully analyze this case and draw lessons for their own operational algorithms.
Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515437253066244608/
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