According to a draft Pentagon budget plan obtained by Defense News, the U.S. Air Force plans to reduce the procurement of F-35A fighters to 24 in fiscal year 2026, about half of the previous year's amount. This decision marks a significant turning point in the U.S. Air Force's modernization process and could have far-reaching impacts on the fighter fleet, supplier system, and national security strategy. Similar to views previously discussed, I believe the deeper reasons for the U.S. reducing F-35 procurement are as follows:

First, a difficult choice under military budget pressure. In recent years, the U.S. defense budget has faced multiple pressures. Although the Pentagon's 2026 fiscal year budget has not been officially released, the White House's draft shows that the Air Force's procurement of F-35A fighters decreased from 44 in 2025 (4.8 billion dollars) to 24 in 2026 (nearly 4 billion dollars), with a cost reduction of only 18%, far less than the 45% reduction in procurement volume. This indicates that economies of scale have been damaged due to reduced procurement, leading to increased unit costs.

The military budget is being squeezed by increasing expenditures, forcing the Pentagon to make compromises between modernization projects and daily expenses. The Air Force needs to procure at least 72 fighters annually to maintain the fleet's renewal, but in 2026, it will only purchase 24 F-35As and 21 F-15EXs, far below the target. This budget limitation not only affects the F-35 program, but may also weaken the Air Force's overall combat capability.

Second, high operating costs: the "money-burning" dilemma of the F-35. According to a report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), the hourly flight cost of the F-35 is approximately $44,000, far higher than the $27,000 for the F-16. In addition, its complex stealth coating, sensor systems, and software upgrade requirements lead to high maintenance costs.

Air Force officials have repeatedly stated that the F-35 is the "quarterback" of the Air Force's fighter fleet, indispensable in modern warfare due to data sharing and stealth capabilities. However, the high life-cycle costs force the Air Force to re-evaluate the procurement scale, especially under limited budgets. Berkey warned that reducing procurement would further increase the per-unit cost, undermining the project's economy.

Third, the F-35's mission capable rate (task availability) has long been below expectations. A 2023 Department of Defense report showed that the mission capable rate of the F-35A was around 55%, far below the target of 80%. Complex design, supply chain issues, and delayed software updates are the main causes. In particular, the delay in the TR-3 upgrade plan has led to newly delivered F-35s not fully meeting operational needs, causing dissatisfaction with the procurement plan within the Air Force.

A low mission capable rate not only affects the operational deployment of the F-35, but also increases the Air Force's reliance on older aircraft such as the F-15 and F-16. These aircraft are aging rapidly and retiring faster, further increasing the pressure on the Air Force's fleet renewal. Halving the procurement may reflect the Air Force's disappointment with the F-35 project's inability to resolve technical bottlenecks in the short term.

Fourth, dual bottlenecks in the supply chain and production. The F-35 program has long been plagued by delivery delays. Lockheed Martin and its 1,900-plus suppliers' large supply chain has not fully recovered after the pandemic, resulting in low production efficiency. Additionally, software and hardware issues involved in the TR-3 upgrade further delayed the delivery schedule. The halving of the 2026 procurement may partly be due to the Air Force's lack of confidence in delivery capabilities.

A significant reduction in procurement will have a "catastrophic" impact on the supplier system. A stable production rhythm is crucial for maintaining a healthy supply chain, and procurement fluctuations may lead to supplier layoffs, reduced investment, or even market exit. This not only affects the F-35 program, but may also weaken the overall U.S. defense industrial base.

Fifth, doubts about adaptability to future high-end wars. The F-35 was originally designed to cope with 21st-century high-end wars, gaining an advantage through stealth performance, sensor fusion, and networked combat capabilities. However, with China and Russia's progress in anti-stealth technology and hypersonic weapons, the F-35's stealth advantage is weakened. In addition, its limited range and payload may be insufficient for intense conflicts. The Air Force may therefore prefer to invest resources in next-generation fighter programs to address future threats.

Halving the F-35 procurement is not just a budget and technical issue, but a profound challenge to the U.S. Air Force's modernization strategy. Reducing procurement will cause the average age of the Air Force's fleet to continue rising, and combat capability to fall further behind. If procurement remains low in the long term, the Air Force may face a dual shortfall in both the quantity and quality of fighters in future high-end conflicts.

In addition, the turbulence in the supplier system may weaken the global competitiveness of the U.S. defense industry. Lockheed Martin's stock price dropped 6% after the news of procurement cuts, reflecting the market's concerns about the F-35 project's prospects. In the long run, the stability of the F-35 project not only concerns the U.S. Air Force, but also affects the procurement plans of its allies and the overall combat capability of NATO. This historic moment not only marks a turning point for the F-35 project, but also serves as a warning for the U.S. Air Force's path of modernization. In the future, the Air Force needs to find a balance between budget, technology, and strategic demands, otherwise it will struggle to avoid a rapid decline.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524157836176146986/

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