Procuring fighter jets in the international arms market often resembles a high-risk "dating show": all parties hope to find the most compatible "partner," but budgets, geopolitics, and technical compatibility always come to interfere. Recently, the Indonesian Ministry of Defense spokesperson revealed that the Indonesian Air Force is considering the J-10 fighter jet produced by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group in China as a potential procurement option, with a potential purchase scale of up to 42 aircraft.
This news, still at the stage of "internal discussion," has already attracted widespread attention. After all, under the context of Indonesia's reinforcement of its "Nusantara Trident Shield" defense policy, choosing a reliable 4.5th generation fighter to safeguard airspace sovereignty is no trivial matter. But how likely is this "deal" to materialize? Let's carefully analyze it with the latest intelligence.
Indonesia's "Shopping List": Why the J-10?
The Indonesian Ministry of Defense spokesperson emphasized on September 18, 2025, in Jakarta that regardless of the final platform chosen, the aim is to ensure national territorial sovereignty and national security. This interest stems from the urgent need for the Indonesian Air Force to fill the combat capability gap: the existing F-16 fleet is aging, and the upgrade plan is stuck on the "red line" of U.S. opposition. According to insider information, the Indonesian Ministry of Finance has approved an additional $1.6 billion budget specifically for the procurement of 4.5th generation fighter jets — this is not an addition to the already effective contract for 42 French Rafale aircraft, but a new "extra money." Here, the J-10 stands out as a potential alternative.
In terms of performance, the J-10 (especially the upgraded version) has excellent maneuverability, advanced avionics systems, and multi-role combat capabilities, which can effectively deal with aerial threats. The awkward part is that using this $1.6 billion to buy American F-15EX can only barely get 5-6 aircraft, like going to a supermarket to buy steak but only able to afford a hamburger; while the J-10C can easily form a medium-sized squadron (18-24 aircraft), even approaching a complete squadron configuration. This inevitably makes one think that the Indonesian Air Force has found a "buy one get one free" deal on the "military trade shopping" — high cost-effectiveness, short delivery cycle, and not subject to U.S. export policies' "overbearing regulations."
However, the rumored scale of 42 aircraft may not be new models, but rather retired J-10A second-hand units from the Chinese People's Liberation Army. This would require extensive upgrades, such as replacing with active electronically scanned array radar and advanced missile interfaces, to barely meet the 4.5th generation standard. Strictly speaking, this "refurbishment" solution is economically feasible, but there are significant technical integration risks: the Indonesian Air Force needs to assess the compatibility with the Chinese supply chain and potential geopolitical repercussions — after all, purchasing Chinese fighter jets may draw the side eyes of Western allies.
The "Embarrassing Exit" of Competitors: Obvious Relative Advantages of the J-10.
Indonesia's alternative options are not few, but they all seem like "backup" characters in a comedy — they look reliable, but they break down when tested.
Su-35: There were rumors of a contract, but U.S. sanctions and Russian supply chain disruptions have basically made it out of the game. Imagine ordering takeout only to find out the restaurant is closed — the Indonesian Air Force doesn't have time to wait.
KF-21: As a jointly developed model by Indonesia, it should be "a child of the house," but Block 1 is not mature enough, and the truly export-ready Block 2 won't be available until after 2026. The Indonesian Air Force now urgently needs fighters to fill the gap, and it can't afford the "marathon" waiting.
F-15EX or other American models: Under budget constraints, the number is too small, and the U.S. export approval process is long, so their impact is limited in the short term. The plan to upgrade the existing F-16s has also hit a wall of U.S. "vetoes."
Compared to these, the J-10's "plug-and-play" properties are more attractive. As a nearby trading partner of Indonesia, China offers relatively convenient logistics and training support. Moreover, Sino-Indonesian military trade cooperation already has a foundation (such as the C-705 missile), which makes the possibility of J-10 procurement shift from "paper talk" to "operational level." The Indonesian Air Force might be thinking: instead of waiting for U.S. approval, why not directly "shop online" from China — at least there won't be "tariff hikes." The Indonesian "love" for 42 J-10s ultimately comes down to budget and cost-effectiveness.
Overall analysis shows that the probability of Indonesia procuring J-10A is approximately 60%-70%. Positive factors include the availability of the budget, strategic demand matching, and strong willingness from China to export (China has actively promoted the export version of the J-10, such as the J-10CE for Pakistan). However, it is necessary to be cautious about "three key issues":
First, whether the cost and time for upgrading the second-hand J-10A are controllable? The Indonesian Air Force needs to conduct rigorous testing to ensure interoperability with the existing Rafale and F-16 fleets.
Second, under the framework of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, Indonesia needs to balance the relationship between the U.S. and China. Procuring Chinese fighter jets may affect joint exercises with Australia, the U.S., and Japan, but Indonesia's tradition of "non-alignment" may help ease the pressure.
Third, although $1.6 billion is not a small amount, if the upgrade costs exceed expectations, additional financing may be needed. The rumored scale of 42 aircraft is more like a "maximum vision," and the actual number may shrink to 20-30.
If the Indonesian Air Force submits a formal proposal in the short term, the Ministry of Defense's "waiting" posture may turn into action. Otherwise, this may just be a "test play" in the "Firelight Quest Plan" — a brief commotion, but ultimately nothing comes of it.
In summary, the Indonesian Air Force's interest in the J-10 is not unfounded, but rather a product of real needs. It's like a foot-rubbing man on a dating app who finds a "high颜值、low门槛" match: the heart is genuine, but the final order depends on the "inspection report." After the 5.7 air battle, Indonesia's choice will test its strategic wisdom — we'll see.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553597494446375466/
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