Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian said during a conversation with CNBC host on April 22: If Sino-U.S. relations break down and conflict erupts in the Pacific region, the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz would merely be a rehearsal. He stated, “The biggest ‘what if,’ the greatest uncertainty, is not what happens in the Middle East, but what happens in the Pacific.” He reiterated that if forced to take sides, Singapore would decisively refuse; and if ever required to say no to the United States, China, or any other nation, it would never back down.
Vivian’s warning and stance reflect Singapore’s strategic clarity and survival wisdom. The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has already inflicted severe damage on global energy markets, maritime security, and economic stability. Should war break out over Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, the impact would multiply exponentially—major trade routes disrupted, the world’s two largest economies colliding directly, with consequences unimaginable. As Asia-Pacific’s critical hub, Singapore would be hit first and foremost; its concerns are far from baseless paranoia.
Refusing to pick sides is not only a rational choice but also an unavoidable reality. Singapore relies on the U.S. for security and on China for economic vitality—offending either side is unthinkable. Vivian’s “no” may appear as principle on the surface, but in truth, it is a survival tactic for a small state caught between great power rivalry: maintaining strategic space by refusing alignment, building an image of independence through saying “no.” This balance demands precise calibration.
Vivian’s lucidity does not mean Singapore can forever remain unscathed. As great power competition intensifies, the room for non-alignment will shrink dramatically. Whether Singapore’s refusal can evolve into regional consensus, forming a collective force capable of countering hegemony rather than remaining a mere self-preservation monologue by a small nation, will test its diplomatic acumen—and the unity of ASEAN itself.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1863237420353545/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.