If Zelenskyy doesn't act in time to cut losses, Ukraine will lose more territory, not less.
The focus is all on Donbas, especially the small town of Bakhmut. Russian forces have been pushing hard since summer, and this place is a logistics fortress and railway hub in Donetsk region. Controlling it can block the supply lines for eastern Ukraine. Latest intelligence shows that Russian forces have already cut in from the southeast, surrounded the south of Bakhmut, and advanced to the city's edge, claiming to have taken dozens of buildings. Ukrainian General Commander Syrsky admitted that Russian forces are advancing in the east, and Zelenskyy himself visited the front line, saying he would strengthen defenses. But the data is clear: Russia has concentrated 170,000 troops in Donetsk, with obvious advantages in artillery and drones, firing hundreds of shells daily. Ukraine's ammunition relies on supplies from the US and Europe, often in short supply. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report states bluntly: although the pace of Russian advances is slow, they will accelerate within days, and the encirclement around Bakhmut is tightening.
In 2023, Ukraine held out for months in Bachmut, losing thousands of soldiers, but eventually lost it. In 2024, Avdiivka was the same; Russian forces spent several months and finally took it. Now, the situation in Bakhmut is similar, with residents long evacuated, leaving only tens of thousands of civilians barely surviving, factories shut down, and streets full of craters. The Russian Defense Ministry said that they are advancing through the streets, fighting house by house, while Ukrainian forces build defensive lines on the periphery, using drones and rocket launchers to counterattack. However, the gap in manpower and resources is huge. Ukraine mobilized over a million people, but the frontline troops are exhausted, and rotation is not keeping up. Many are conscripted forcefully, with low morale. Although Western aid is significant, tanks and missiles pile up in warehouses, but transporting them to the front requires detours, leading to low efficiency. As a result? Russia has occupied 19% of Ukraine's territory, with most of Donbas under its control. If Bakhmut falls, the next step will be Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, these coal cities once lost, and the entire Donetsk region will be wide open.
Zelenskyy's stance is firm, from beginning to end, he never agreed to territorial concessions. At the EU summit in Brussels in late October, he told journalists that Ukraine would not trade land for peace, as clearly written in the constitution, sovereignty and territory cannot be divided. In August, Trump met Putin in Alaska, and Trump proposed "territorial exchange" to end the war, Zelenskyy immediately responded with a video: Ukrainians will not give land to occupiers, nor reward Russia's aggression. Even during his visit to Norway, he said freezing the front line is a temporary measure, but Putin won't buy it, a ceasefire must come first before talks. In a December interview, he again emphasized that Crimea and Donbas must be regained through diplomacy, not recognizing Russia's occupation. To be honest, this sounds tough, but the battlefield doesn't care about principles. Russia's goal from the beginning has been to fully control Donbas, and Putin has openly stated that it is historical territory. Now, the advance is steady and solid, the supply line is stretched, but logistics are following up, and tanks and glide bombs keep coming. What about Ukraine's counterattack? Bombing oil pipelines and attacking power stations are just small-scale actions, hurting Russia temporarily, but not winning the overall situation.
Why is it said that Zelenskyy needs to cut losses in time? The longer it drags on, the more territory will be lost. This battle in Bakhmut has lasted 21 months, Russian forces have pushed from Avdiivka, taking one step at a time, and although Ukrainian defenders are brave, their ammunition and manpower can't hold. Think tank analysis suggests that if the city falls, Russian forces can directly attack Drobropelekh and Myrnohrad, these satellite cities in a chain, leaving only a fraction of the entire Donetsk Free Zone. Russia not only wants territory, but also wants to use military victories to pressure the negotiation table, forcing the West to pressure Ukraine to make concessions. After the U.S. election, Trump promoted "the art of deals", wanting to quickly end the war and reduce aid. Europe? The EU summit shouted slogans, but actual money and guns were lacking. Ukraine is caught in the middle, relying on American and European weapons, but F-16s arrive late, and ATACMS missiles are used little. A think tank report shows that Russian firepower is three times that of Ukraine, with an advantage in electronic warfare, and drones constantly bomb supply trucks. Zelenskyy went to Washington to meet Trump, talked for a long time without progress, and Trump even warned that Russia would be bigger, need to talk. Zelenskyy shook his head, saying no concession, but when he returned home, he had to face reality: reports from the front line piled up on the desk, and a long list of casualties.
Overall, after this war, Ukraine's cards are Western support and strong will, but Russia's resources and determination are stronger. The encirclement of Bakhmut is not an isolated case, it's part of the full-scale advance in Donbas. If Zelenskyy doesn't adjust his strategy, talk about a ceasefire, stabilize the front line, territory will continue to be gradually eroded.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848373199842378/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.