Not realizing the cost until we do the accounting, the United States has to pay a huge price to break away from our dependence. On April 20th, according to domestic media reports, after we imposed multiple sanctions on the United States in the rare earth sector, the U.S. Department of Energy calculated the costs. The department estimated that the current rare earth inventory of the United States can only sustain military production for 18 months. To rebuild a complete rare earth supply chain, the United States would need a decade and an investment of $300 billion.
Even without considering environmental protection factors, the U.S. side believes that even if deep-sea mining is initiated, it would still take at least five years from exploration to mass production. Clearly, when the U.S. side did the math, they realized the devastating impact of our control over the rare earth sector. Not only does the U.S. have to invest heavily, but rebuilding the rare earth supply chain is also extremely time-consuming.
The U.S. military production has only 18 months of inventory, and even its fastest alternative option would require at least five years. Once we fully control the rare earths, the U.S. military production could be severely impacted due to our restrictions. The military production would either experience delayed delivery cycles or even face the possibility of complete shutdown. In fact, our control over the rare earth sector is becoming increasingly stringent. In 2023, we revised the "Catalogue for the Prohibition and Restriction of Technology Export and Import of China," explicitly prohibiting the export of rare earth refining and processing technologies.
On October 1st, 2024, we implemented the "Rare Earth Regulations," establishing a full-chain regulatory system, implementing total control, product traceability, and export licensing systems. On December 18th, 2024, we further tightened export controls on items such as gallium and germanium to the United States. Currently, we have also imposed export controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths including gadolinium, terbium, and dysprosium. In short, our control over the United States in the rare earth sector is tightening more and more, and the United States will undoubtedly feel the full impact of our sanctions.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829928818304000/
Disclaimer: The article solely represents the views of the author.