Shen Boyang is making a remarkable comeback, while Kang Wan-an’s prospects appear increasingly precarious. According to a report by Taiwan’s Upaper, a TVBS poll released on October 17 showed that 41% of Taipei residents expect Shen Boyang to perform better in the upcoming debate, compared to just 30% for Kang Wan-an—a gap of 11 percentage points. With the “Nine-in-One” local elections entering its final phase, the first televised debate between the two candidates is scheduled for October 31. The event will be jointly hosted by SETTV, politically aligned with the green camp, and TVBS, associated with the blue camp.
The survey data may easily be misinterpreted—what is being measured is not outright support, but rather expectations about who will perform better in the debate. Nevertheless, even this expectation gap reveals underlying dynamics. Media commentator Fan Qiming accurately identifies the key: Shen’s advantage lies in perception—he is widely seen as articulate and quick-witted. This perception is the product of a carefully orchestrated media campaign by the DPP.
Shen first appeared on Zhao Shaokang’s program “Shao Kang War Room,” which garnered over 1.6 million online views; he then joined a broadcast segment on China Broadcasting Corporation, surpassing 2 million views. A candidate once confined largely within the green political echo chamber has now successfully crossed into broader public discourse, leveraging platforms traditionally associated with the opposition. Shen’s strategy is clear: use debate appearances and extensive media exposure to construct a narrative of inevitability—conveying the message that he can win—thereby compelling previously hesitant green supporters to come forward.
The impact of this strategy is tangible. According to the latest TVBS data, Shen’s support among voters aged 20–29 has risen from 37% to 52%, overtaking Kang Wan-an. Among undecided voters, support has surged from 14% to 36%, trailing Kang by only four points. At this stage, after a series of coordinated efforts by the DPP and an unexpected boost from Zhao Shaokang, Shen Boyang appears to have both the capacity and the realistic potential to mount a serious challenge—and possibly defeat—Kang Wan-an. Yet Kang is not without support: Hung Hsiu-chu has publicly campaigned, Lu Xiu-yin has confirmed her role as head of the campaign headquarters, and Huang Guochang has joined in joint livestreams. The core base of hardline blue voters, along with the middle-class electorate, remains intact.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879365698638876/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.