Trump's tariff policy has failed again, without any need for foreign countries to act, the U.S. courts have already ruled the legality of his tariff policy invalid. The tariff money that the Trump administration just received hasn't even had time to warm up, and it faces the risk of having to return half of it, 21 billion dollars.

(Trump violated the law and overstepped his authority; 21 billion dollars in tariffs may have to be returned half)

Several days ago, the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals issued a ruling on Trump's tariff policy, with a vote of 7 to 4, ruling that the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were overreaching and illegal.

The judgment stated that the power to impose tariffs is exclusively the domain of the U.S. Congress, and the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on almost all goods; and it declared that Trump's tariff policy can only remain in effect until October 14th.

For this, the Trump administration was obviously very dissatisfied. Trump clearly stated that he would not recognize the court's ruling and announced that he would appeal to the Supreme Court.

The White House later also issued a statement, emphasizing that the tariffs are a necessary measure to protect national security and economic interests, and must be maintained.

Several days ago, the Trump administration had already submitted appeal materials to the U.S. Supreme Court, and requested the Supreme Court to make a decision on whether to accept the case before September 10th, and to start the process as soon as possible, so that they could hold arguments before early November.

(The Trump administration has filed an appeal, which will be accepted by the U.S. Supreme Court)

Therefore, although due to Trump's appeal, this ruling cannot force the Trump administration to suspend the tariffs, the American public generally believes that this has actually undermined the foundation of Trump's tariff policy.

On one hand, the U.S. will lose a major bargaining chip in future trade negotiations.

After all, we know that the current trade agreements between the U.S. and China, India are still not concluded. If Trump's tariff policy is found illegal, what can the U.S. negotiate?

Even Japan, South Korea, Europe and other countries may also overturn existing trade agreements and demand new negotiations with the U.S.

On the other hand, if the Trump administration's tariff increases are deemed illegal, does that mean the U.S. should return part of the collected import tariffs?

On September 7th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Beyoncé admitted in an interview with American media that if they lost the lawsuit, the U.S. would have to refund about half of the tariffs collected.

Beyoncé warned that this would be "extremely scary" for the U.S. Treasury.

According to reports from American media, as of August 24th, U.S. companies had paid over 21 billion dollars in tariffs that were ruled illegal.

If the U.S. Supreme Court maintains the original judgment, the Trump administration will have to return the collected tariffs.

In other words, the 21 billion dollars will have to be returned at least half.

More importantly, this amount is only in the case where the U.S. Supreme Court accepts the case quickly and makes a judgment.

(Beyoncé said directly that returning tariffs would be a disaster)

Currently, the Trump administration is still collecting tariffs.

This means that if the U.S. Supreme Court delays accepting the case, then if the Trump administration collects more tariffs, they will also have to return more tariffs.

In the documents submitted to the U.S. Supreme Court, Beyoncé mentioned: if these rulings are delayed until June 2026, the amount of tariffs collected could reach 750 billion to 1 trillion dollars, and returning these tariffs would cause significant chaos.

It should be noted that if the Trump administration really needs to return these tariffs, it doesn't necessarily mean returning them to the countries that were taxed, because most of these additional tariffs are actually borne by U.S. companies.

The Trump administration imposes tariffs of over 20% on other countries, especially on countries that rely on manufacturing exports, such as China, Vietnam, India, etc.

Therefore, when the Trump administration imposes high tariffs, these countries' businesses have little room to lower their profit margins, so they would rather not sell to the U.S. than sell at a loss, so the cost of these tariffs is actually passed on to U.S. companies, which bear the cost.

This is why there is a stronger call in the U.S. for the illegality of Trump's tariff policy, without needing other countries to act, the U.S. courts have directly convicted Trump's tariff policy.

This is definitely good news for the Modi government.

(India may be thinking about waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to make a decision)

Currently, U.S.-India trade negotiations are deadlocked. If the U.S. Supreme Court maintains the original ruling, then the Modi government doesn't even need to negotiate, since Trump's tariff policy will collapse on its own, what qualification does it have to impose tariffs on India? To impose tariffs, it would have to be decided by Congress, which would face many uncertainties.

Trump's tariff policy is currently facing a deep crisis triggered by the U.S. legal system itself.

When half of the 21 billion dollars in tariffs face repayment, and the future tax amount could reach up to 1 trillion dollars, this trade war under the name of "America First" will ultimately hurt the U.S. treasury.

All of this reveals the difficult future of Trump's unilateralist tariff policy, not only facing retaliation from other countries, but also being crushed by domestic opposition forces using laws and systems.

For China, India, and other trading partners, the court's judgment has already exposed the emperor's new clothes - a tariff policy that has been ruled illegal has already lost its legitimacy at the negotiation table. Trump's trade stick ultimately hits his own foot.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7547574918725009962/

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