The global oil market is facing a severe oversupply situation.

Tokyo says the oil market is facing a "super surplus"

2025-12-09 13:10:29 GMT

By Michelle Ferman

(Bloomberg) — Global commodities trader Trafigura said the oil market will face a "severe oversupply" next year as a wave of new supply may be hindered by weak demand.

In a video released during the company's annual results announcement on Tuesday, Trafigura's chief economist Saad al-Rashid said, "Whether it's oversupply or super oversupply, it's hard to get out of this situation."

Data from the International Energy Agency shows that oil supply will reach an all-time high of more than 4 million barrels per day next year — about 4% of global consumption. Although the actual figure may be lower than this number, analysts and traders still expect a severe oversupply.

Al-Rashid pointed out some of the supply-side issues behind this warning: large new oil projects planned years ago are coming online one after another, while the pace of demand growth has clearly slowed, especially in China.

He said that the continued strong purchasing activities of importers (especially China), as well as adjusted supply plans by the US and OPEC+ countries, may help delay or ease the oversupply situation.

The mismatch between the surge in supply and weak demand has put pressure on prices. Brent crude has fallen 16% so far this year, which signals it will have its worst year since the pandemic.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1851089896767488/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.