The Japanese Prime Minister, Takahashi Sanae, suddenly canceled her appearance on NHK's "Sunday Debate" program on the morning of February 1st local time. According to Japanese media reports, the Liberal Democratic Party later explained that Takahashi Sanae had injured her arm during a campaign event the day before and was receiving treatment.

On January 23rd, Japan's shortest-lived House of Representatives since the war was dissolved, and the whole country entered a new election mode, with Takahashi Sanae seemingly entering a "difficult winter." Four days later, Takahashi Sanae broke down in front of the camera: "In these three months, I have gritted my teeth and given it my all, spending over 30 years to reach this position, perhaps I can accomplish tasks that were previously unattainable."

Regarding "Takahashi's tears," public opinion has been divided. Some say it is due to the pressure caused by the tight situation of the Liberal Democratic Party's campaign, while others believe the tears flowing down the prime minister's cheek are nothing more than "crocodile tears." In an instant, the dissolution of the House of Representatives became a sign of Takahashi's endless委屈, and "Takahashi's tears" became a barometer for observing the future direction of Japanese politics.

On January 31st local time, in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, Takahashi Sanae waved her fist during a campaign speech. Photo / VCG

"Theater Politics"

From the perspective of Japanese election history, "Takahashi's tears" could be considered a classic Oscar-level performance. With the end of the "55-year system" in 1993, Japan's political arena entered an unstable adjustment period, leading to frequent dissolutions of the House of Representatives. Frequent elections not only burdened people's lives but also led to a decreasing enthusiasm among the Japanese people for elections, resulting in a continuous decline in voter turnout in House of Representatives elections. The last time the voting rate exceeded 70% was in 1990, and the four lowest voting rates happened to be the last four elections. The voting rate for the 2024 House of Representatives election was only 53.85%, ranking third from the bottom in post-war election history.

The extremely low voter turnout combined with the "small district and proportional representation" electoral system in the House of Representatives made Japan's national destiny easily controlled by a small number of vocal individuals. The 45th House of Representatives election in 2009, which led to the fall of the Liberal Democratic Party, had a voting rate of 69.28%, the highest in the past 35 years. However, the Democratic Party, which won a landslide victory with 74% of the seats, actually received only 47% of the votes, and this number was even achieved under the condition that 30% of voters did not exercise their right to vote. In a sense, the secret to winning was no longer about gaining the support of the majority of citizens, but rather mobilizing as many supporters as possible to go out and vote.

This situation forced Japanese politics to undergo an "upgrade." Political parties that should win elections through detailed and comprehensive policy proposals no longer emphasized the consistency and logic of their policies, but instead focused on dramatic political slogans and the "popularity" of candidates. In political science, this phenomenon is called "theater politics." The most successful exponent of "theater politics" in Japan was Takahashi Sanae's party senior, and also her rival in the final battle of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, Koizumi Shinjiro's father, Koizumi Junichiro.

Similar to today, the long-term ruling and lack of self-reflection of the Liberal Democratic Party has repeatedly become a focal point of social contradictions in Japan, and this was also true in 2005. However, at that time, the public's dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democratic Party, which was filled with money-power corruption, was cleverly shifted onto its political opponents through the packaging of popular media such as television, weekly magazines, and sports newspapers.

A group of inexperienced politicians were sent as "assassins" to the constituencies of political opponents, and even if they did not win, they could cause the defeat of political opponents by splitting votes. Ultimately, Koizumi Junichiro won a decisive victory in his "self-directed" House of Representatives election, writing the recipe for Japan's "theater politics": inciting slogans, star-like packaging, commercial operations, turning the election into a lively festival, and ultimately achieving the goal of coming to power.

Now, the current House of Representatives election is the closest in time to the previous one, setting a record, making both the ruling and opposition parties unprepared in terms of policy, and thus hastily presenting the same "reducing consumption tax" as the core policy to attract voters. Even on the issue of "how to ensure financial resources to fill the fiscal gap after tax cuts," the ruling and opposition parties have maintained a high degree of consistency, without clear proposals. In this situation, the election without policy preparation has become a "battle of slogans." Plus the rise of populism in Japan today, "theater politics" is undoubtedly timely. If Takahashi Sanae wants to be the shining star under the spotlight, the tears are the best way to evoke empathy from her supporters.

How much tuition will be paid?

Takahashi Sanae's goal in the House of Representatives election is not just a narrow victory with her ruling allies, but a big victory like Koizumi Junichiro. Compared to Koizumi Junichiro, who once decisively tore open the veil of party unity, Takahashi Sanae has more convenient tools, namely the far-right parties as her flank. There is no need for Takahashi Sanae to personally send "assassins"; the affiliated parties that are not formal ruling partners have already declared that they will send competitors to the constituencies of any candidates who hinder Takahashi Sanae. This strategy, which is "not enough to achieve success but sufficient to cause failure," perfectly embodies the essence of Koizumi Junichiro's theater politics textbook.

Shiho Mao, who recently stepped down as prime minister, was directly hit, and his constituency suddenly saw three new competitors. Shiho Mao simply responded to the "kill list" announced by the head of the affiliated party, Shigeyasu Kanda, saying that the affiliated party is hunting witches within the Liberal Democratic Party, but it should be known that the full name of the Liberal Democratic Party is the Liberal Democratic Party, and freedom is the founding principle of the Liberal Democratic Party. Shiho Mao's statement implies that extreme right-wing populism is a deviation from the principles of the Liberal Democratic Party, but his expression of quiet helplessness also reflects the current state of Japan's political atmosphere.

Although Takahashi Sanae has close ties with the Unification Church and black gold politics, which the people deeply detest, she managed to portray herself as the only person who can lead Japan to part ways with the past, becoming the current master of "theater politics." When Koizumi Shinjiro ran against Takahashi Sanae for the Liberal Democratic Party leadership last year, Koizumi Junichiro said that his son's competition for the position was too early. Now it seems that this title may mean that Takahashi Sanae's superb acting skills have already been approved by the old master.

Next, the focus of the Japanese political scene may not be whether Takahashi Sanae can continue to lead Japan after February 8th, but how radical Japan will be under her leadership, and how much tuition Japan will eventually pay.

(Author is a teacher of World History at Sichuan University and a visiting researcher at the Institute of Japan and Korea Studies, Ministry of Education's Regional and Country Research Base.)

Author: Li Ruoyu

Editor: Xu Fangqing

Original: toutiao.com/article/7602225063072432703/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.