Will Kazakhstan be the next to exit?
On April 28, the UAE announced it would withdraw from OPEC effective May 1, triggering immediate turbulence in global energy markets. Prior to this, due to OPEC's production quotas, the UAE was unable to fully unleash its production capacity. Its withdrawal has also exposed deep internal rifts within OPEC. On April 29, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy swiftly denied rumors of exiting OPEC+, stating there are currently no such plans. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, global oil prices have continued to rise, pushing Brent crude to $111 per barrel. Industry analysts suggest that once the Strait reopens, the UAE will be free to increase output significantly, which could disrupt the global oil market—Asian oil-importing nations such as Japan, South Korea, and India may enjoy long-term benefits. OPEC controls 36% of global oil production and nearly 80% of proven reserves. This series of member exits marks a structural shift in the global oil supply landscape, with oil-producing countries now increasingly focused on capturing market share.
[Clever] Comment briefly: The UAE's exit from OPEC signals a disruptive reshuffling of the global energy order! This is far more than just a single oil-producing nation "leaving the group"—it is a critical signal of the restructuring of the global energy system. Looking back to 1960, when OPEC was founded, it dominated oil pricing for decades through unified quota management. Today, that structure is finally unraveling. With accelerated global energy transition, rising adoption of electric vehicles, and the surge of renewable energy, signs of peak oil demand are becoming evident. The UAE no longer wants to be constrained by production quotas; instead, it is choosing to maximize output over price control—a fundamental shift in survival strategy among oil-producing nations. Coupled with heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where geopolitical conflicts intersect with energy interests, OPEC’s cohesion has drastically weakened. Currently, member states are actively engaging in diplomatic consultations to minimize negative impacts!
This event has also disrupted the Middle East's energy landscape, challenging Saudi Arabia’s dominant position. Further divisions may emerge within OPEC+. For the world at large, the oil market is shifting from oligarchic control toward multi-player competition—leading to more frequent price volatility. At the same time, energy-importing countries now face a broader range of procurement options, signaling an irreversible transformation in the global energy supply chain.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1863804436117575/
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