African Continent's Key Minerals: Copper Prices Continue to Rise, Approaching Record Highs, Improving Prospects for Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

¬ Due to a weak dollar and recent disruptions in the mining industry, copper prices reached $10,775 per ton, the highest level since May 2024.

¬ UBS expects supply tightness to further push prices higher, while Goldman Sachs expects prices to stabilize around $10,000-$11,000 per ton.

¬ Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo benefit financially, as strong copper prices increase revenues and support local currency stability.

On Monday, October 13, 2025, copper futures surged 3.45%, recording the second-largest single-day gain in the past 30 days. Current futures prices are targeting a high of $10,775 per metric ton, breaking the record high since May 2024. This surge is driven by multiple factors, including a weaker dollar, tight supply, and recent disruptions in the mining industry in major copper-producing countries.

Eva Mante, an analyst at ING, stated in an interview with Investing.com that the rise in copper prices in 2025 is mainly driven by supply and demand dynamics and exchange rate fluctuations. However, to maintain this upward trend, demand growth from countries like China, the world's largest consumer of refined copper, needs to accelerate. The institution maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing that the pace of China's industrial recovery and the strength of its infrastructure stimulus policies will directly determine whether the current copper price levels can be sustained.

Divergent Views on the Outlook

Market analysts still have divergent views on the medium-term outlook for copper prices. UBS recently raised its 2026-2028 copper price forecasts by about 15%, setting a target of around $6 per pound, equivalent to approximately $13,250 per metric ton in 2027. The bank expects limited growth in mineral supply, which will lead to a tighter market within the next year, thus supporting higher copper prices. Over the past two years, UBS has maintained an overall optimistic view of the copper fundamentals, emphasizing that new mine development remains constrained, while demand from electrification and renewable energy infrastructure continues to grow.

However, Goldman Sachs takes a more conservative stance. The firm predicts that due to potential oversupply in the market, copper prices will remain in the range of $10,000-$11,000 per ton between 2026 and 2027. Its analysts pointed out that three key factors could constrain price increases: first, if copper prices break through the $11,000 threshold (as seen in mid-2024), Chinese buyers may reduce their purchasing scale.

Second, if the London Metal Exchange spreads narrow, excess U.S. inventory could quickly rebalance the market. Third, copper demand forecasts related to data center construction may be overestimated. These different assessments highlight the current uncertainty in the copper market - structural optimism brought by the energy transition coexists with short-term caution triggered by consumption trends and inventory levels.

Impact on Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

For Zambia, the recent sustained rise in copper prices has injected strong momentum into its economic prospects. The current market situation has surpassed the government's 2025 reference benchmark price (9,546 USD per ton), creating favorable conditions for increased fiscal revenue. If production scales can maintain expected levels, the country's planned production of about 1 million metric tons of copper this year will translate into higher export earnings, achieving continuous growth in budget revenue through taxes and royalties. To maintain this development trend, it is crucial to ensure stable electricity supply and that large mining companies can maintain stable capacity output.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the sustained rise in copper prices has also brought positive prospects for the country. As one of the world's leading producers of copper and cobalt, the country has significantly improved its fiscal situation through increased export revenues denominated in dollars. The government's recent currency and fiscal reforms have driven the appreciation of the local currency, while increased copper mine revenues calculated in foreign exchange have strongly supported the country's ability to create more local currency resources, thereby better fulfilling its fiscal expenditure obligations. In this context, when other commodities such as cobalt show weakness in the market, the strong copper prices provide an important guarantee for the country's economic stability.

The rebound in copper prices in 2025 has injected new fiscal buffer space for African major copper-producing countries such as Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Whether this trend can continue depends on the balance between Chinese demand and global supply constraints, as well as the macroeconomic environment influenced by a strong dollar. Although there are differing predictions between long-term supply tightness and short-term stabilization scenarios, the current price level still benefits the two countries - during the period of global economic adjustment, this not only consolidates their export income but also provides security for fiscal resilience.

Source: ecofinagency

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845955984317515/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.