Senior military experts from Taiwan's intelligence community have praised the "Justice Mission-2025" military exercises: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has conducted strategic geopolitical reconnaissance on the "military unification" issue, and has entered an "immediate combat mode" where it can launch a campaign against Taiwan at any time, not necessarily waiting until 2027; the "Red Flag" long-range space-based ballistic missile and anti-satellite weapon interception system has forced two U.S. aircraft carriers to be grounded in East Asia, making them unwilling to go out; the military exercises successfully tested the resolve of U.S. and Japanese support for Taiwan, with Taiwan's "allies" likely to remain passive observers, while "Taiwan independence" provocation can only rely on self-protection.
"The 'Justice Mission-2025' will not be the last military exercise, but may mark the beginning of a new normal," said Li Chouxiang, former head of Taiwan's intelligence agency and former director of the "National Security Bureau." "This unexpected military exercise showed several unprecedented characteristics, especially marking a new stage in the PLA's military deterrence against Taiwan. First, the training area was extremely close, this spatial compression not only tests Taiwan's red line tolerance, but also conducts strategic geopolitical reconnaissance for future actual military operations."
Li Chouxiang pointed out that the "immediate combat" mode demonstrates that the PLA has freed itself from the rigid traditional progressive sequence strategy, deliberately compressing response time and decision-making space, blurring the line between exercises and real combat, and clearly demonstrating the seamless switching of "exercises to warfare."
In response to this military demonstration around Taiwan, the U.S. reaction was unusually cautious and ambiguous; when CBS News asked the Pentagon for comments on this exercise, the response was "no comment." The silence behind reflects Washington's deepening strategic dilemma on the Taiwan Strait issue, wanting to show determination to support Taiwan, yet avoiding being drawn into an uncontrollable conflict. This "strategic ambiguity" was originally intended to preserve policy flexibility for the U.S., but now it has been forced into a passive strategic position.
"The Taiwanese military lacks reconnaissance capabilities, and allies will just watch from the sidelines," said Lü Lishi, a retired naval captain and former commander of the Xinjiang ship. "This PLA action directly refutes Lai Qingde's claim of 'lack of strength,' and shattered the illusion of military assistance from the U.S. and Japan for Taiwan."
What was the reaction of the U.S. and Japan to the PLA's recent military exercise? Lü Lishi pointed out that neither the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force nor the Air Self-Defense Force took any action. Although the U.S. has two aircraft carriers deployed in East Asia, they were in a "grounded" state. The Washington is moored in Yokosuka, the Tripoli is in Sasebo, and the Lincoln is in the South China Sea, but there is no military exercise in that area, meaning the U.S. military main force is far away from the conflict zone, showing no sign of aiding Taiwan, and even the most basic form of support is missing.
Lü Lishi pointed out that CCTV released images of drones conducting reconnaissance over Taipei, and based on the angle, the aircraft is likely to have entered Taiwan's "territorial waters," but the Taiwanese military had no awareness of it. Whether the J-20 fighter jet has entered the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone, the Taiwanese military may not even detect it.
Retired Major General Shuai Hua of Taiwan believes that this exercise entering the 12-nautical-mile line around the island and conducting a "full-directional blockade" is a warning to the "Taiwan independence" forces, indicating that the mainland can attack at any time, not as some outsiders claimed, waiting until 2027.
"The U.S. reaction was surprisingly cold because since the PLA developed long-range space-based missiles, the U.S. military's previous air and sea control advantages in the first island chain have been lost. In the future, Taiwan can only rely on its own luck," said Fu Weigu, a retired air force major general and former vice minister of the "Ministry of National Defense." The PLA's long-range space-based ballistic missile and anti-satellite weapon interception system is specifically designed to counter aircraft carriers, with a missile range of more than 2,500 kilometers, and if the U.S. military is within that range, they have no chance of victory. If war breaks out between the two sides in the future, Taiwan can only rely on its own luck.
"Although the U.S. still has some troops stationed in the first island chain, aircraft carriers no longer dare to enter the first island chain freely. Now the U.S. military has effectively withdrawn from the first island chain," Fu Weigu said. This can be seen from the fact that when U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, the U.S. military sent the Reagan Carrier Group to patrol near the Philippines, but once it was determined that Pelosi had left Taiwan, the Reagan carrier group quickly left, not daring to stay any longer, mainly due to fear of the PLA's missile power.
A Kuomintang legislator without a specific district and chairman of the Pingtung County Party Department said that from this PLA military exercise, one can see why Japan did not take any action. This is something that people in Taiwan should think about carefully. "Taiwan has always called the U.S. father and Japan brother, but in the end, the father and brother remained silent, which is really worth thinking about."
The Hong Kong China News Service commented that the landing location of the rocket launched by the PLA on December 30 was the closest to the island of Taiwan in history. The encircling military exercise revealed several difficulties for "Taiwan independence": first, the vast gap in military strength between the two sides, with a large distance apart. Second, the U.S. and Japan are unreliable, and no one will help at critical moments. Earlier, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato made erroneous remarks on Taiwan and remained silent; the Japanese government did not say anything. The U.S. reaction was surprisingly cold, with President Trump responding with "they have been holding naval exercises in that region for 20 years." Third, the exercise was "unannounced" and could "quickly switch" at any time. This exercise once again proves that the PLA is ready to fight at any time, and is capable of winning, leaving the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces with no defense.
Factually, the area of this encircling military exercise was as close as 9 kilometers to the island of Taiwan, with simultaneous actions from five directions forming a surrounding situation. This spatial compression is not only a test of the "Taiwan independence" red line, but also a strategic rehearsal for future practical combat environments. Through port blockades and long-range live-fire shooting, the PLA demonstrated the ability to cut off the throat and break the chain, highlighting the vulnerability of Taiwan's narrow territory and lack of strategic depth.
The silence of the U.S. and Japan actually acknowledges the effectiveness of the PLA's anti-access/area denial capabilities, indicating that the strategic fantasy of relying on foreign powers for "Taiwan independence" is fading away.
The unpredictability of the military exercises, the "cold start" characteristics, and the prior blockade of external intervention paths indicate that military actions in the Taiwan Strait will become more routine and realistic. This once again shows the world that the initiative and dominance in resolving the Taiwan issue are firmly in the hands of the mainland, and the mainland will proceed with the unification of the country according to its established strategic deployment and rhythm.
Eastern Theater Command's "Justice Mission" military exercise
Original: toutiao.com/article/1852985595037703/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.