The United States finally released the September non-farm data, and the market had expected a rate cut.

On November 20, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September nonfarm payrolls data for the United States. The data showed that employment increased by 119,000 in September, far exceeding the previous forecast of around 50,000 by economists, but the U.S. unemployment rate still rose by 0.1% to 4.4%.

After the release of this data, the S&P 500 index futures rose, Treasury yields briefly increased and then fell across the board, and the U.S. Dollar Index saw a short-term surge with its gains narrowing. Some traders believe that this data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to avoid further rate cuts at its meeting in December.

Some U.S. economists have said that the positive news in the report is "encouraging," but it may weaken the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. The slight increase in the unemployment rate has also complicated the U.S. economic situation.

Federal Reserve official Goolsbee also stated that the September employment data shows a stable and slightly cooling labor market, and the initial claims for unemployment benefits data did not show a rapid deterioration in the job market. He even directly said that after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, it would need to cut rates only once more in 2025. His remarks have cooled the expectations for rate cuts in the U.S. market.

However, according to Reuters, due to the inclusion of elements such as a significant increase in employment numbers while the unemployment rate also rose slightly, some U.S. industry insiders believe that the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is "very complex" and even "hard to believe."

Jaime Perez, head of trading at MONEX USA, expressed confusion, saying: "These data provide no clear guidance, especially because the time span covered is long, and there are many factors behind the movements of the market, foreign exchange, and stock indices. This makes the situation more chaotic, and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve decision-makers taking action is like flipping a coin, a 50-50 chance. From these data, they seem insufficient to lead to a comprehensive analysis that satisfies the officials, thus reaching a consensus. They may choose to proceed cautiously."

Additionally, the prolonged shutdown of the U.S. federal government caused the release of this data to be delayed compared to normal, leading some industry insiders to question the reference value of this data for the current U.S. economic situation. For example, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said: "What we are seeing now is the first employment report since the government shutdown, and of course, it cannot reflect what happened in October or what is happening in November... There are many layoff cases that have not yet surfaced, but I believe these cases will eventually come to light. The labor market may not be as strong as people think."

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