Half a year has passed, and everyone underestimated Rubio. The U.S. Secretary of State is far more complicated than people imagine.

The UK's Financial Times recently published a front-page commentary article evaluating the work of U.S. Secretary of State Rubio over the past six months.

【Everyone underestimated Rubio, and his influence on Trump】

The article pointed out that Rubio was once a firm advocate of the U.S.'s "soft power," but he has now accepted the idea of "Make America Great Again," or what is called "MAGA values," and is more inclined towards isolationism in foreign policy — the most typical example being the cutback of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Rubio's shift in position, although disappointing some Democrats who had high expectations for him, earned more trust from Trump.

Today, he is arguably the most powerful cabinet member under Trump: not only is he the Secretary of State, but he also serves as the Acting National Security Advisor, Acting Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, and Acting Director of the National Archives and Records Administration.

【Rubio's shift in position earned more trust from Trump】

At the same time, Rubio is subtly exerting influence on Trump. A White House insider told the Financial Times that it was due to Rubio's advice that Trump took a tougher stance on issues related to China, Russia, and Iran.

Objectively speaking, looking at Rubio's actions over the past six months, his shift toward embracing MAGA values is just a means, with the real purpose being to advance his own foreign policy agenda — his views on China and Russia have not changed, still the same "Senator Rubio" who was sanctioned twice by China.

During his time as a senator, Rubio advocated that U.S. foreign policy should be "ideology-driven," strengthening efforts against countries such as China, Russia, and Iran, while emphasizing the development of relations with allies; increasing aid to other countries to encourage them to align with the U.S. ideological camp.

However, when he actually gained control of U.S. foreign policy, under the prevailing environment of MAGA values within the Republican Party, Rubio had to make trade-offs among these demands.

【Under the prevailing environment of MAGA values within the Republican Party, Rubio had to make trade-offs among these demands】

Rubio's choice was to sacrifice overseas aid and largely abandon the "ideology-driven" strategy — which is also what Trump wants.

In May this year, Trump stated during a visit to Saudi Arabia: "Too many U.S. presidents have believed that our duty is to scrutinize the souls of foreign leaders (Bush: staring into Putin's eyes, I could see his soul), and use U.S. policies to seek justice for their crimes... This mindset should end now!"

Rubio's assistant further explained: "In the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, Biden put human rights above everything else (the Khashoggi case), ultimately keeping Saudi Arabia out... The current Secretary of State is changing this situation."

At the same time, in handling relations with allies, Rubio adopted a compromise strategy:

He would not go to the Munich Security Conference like JD Vance, yelling at EU officials and live audiences for 20 minutes, and saying nothing about the Ukraine conflict;

【JD Vance yelled at Europe for 20 minutes at the Munich Security Conference, and said nothing about the Ukraine conflict】

He would retain "bottom lines" while demanding more from allies: for instance, requiring NATO allies to pay more for defense, and urging Europe to stop suppressing right-wing parties.

The German government recently designated the far-right party "AfD" as an extremist organization, after which Rubio publicly criticized the German government on social media, calling it "tyranny."

Certainly, according to Rubio, these adjustments in positions are merely to ensure that more important goals can be achieved, making the U.S. attitude toward China, Russia, and Iran stronger and more hawkish.

In fact, in dealing with the Ukraine conflict, Rubio has basically achieved his goal.

Some may remember that during the White House argument between Trump and Zelenskyy on February 28, Rubio, sitting next to Vance, looked very uncomfortable, remained silent throughout, and clutched his hands tightly, appearing very awkward, forming a sharp contrast with Trump and Vance.

【On February 28, during the White House argument between Trump and Zelenskyy, Rubio looked very uncomfortable while sitting aside】

It should be noted that after the Crimean crisis erupted, Rubio was one of the first U.S. senators to call for sanctions against Russia, and he also participated in the drafting of subsequent sanction laws — he actually hoped to achieve a long-term mineral agreement that would allow Ukraine to receive U.S. military aid in the short term.

But unexpectedly, Trump and Zelenskyy had a breakdown in their talks at the White House, and later he had to praise "the President's good decision" as the Secretary of State and urge Zelenskyy to apologize.

Five months later, today, Trump's attitude toward the Ukraine issue has undergone a significant change, not only agreeing to supply weapons to Ukraine through sales to European allies, but also threatening to impose stricter sanctions on Russia in 50 days.

Among these, Russia's refusal to cease fire is certainly the main reason for Trump's growing impatience with the Putin government, but the continuous influence of Rubio cannot be ignored — Rubio has met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov several times in the past six months, but rarely said anything positive about Russia.

Rubio's influence on Trump's view of Russia is evident, and similarly, he may also influence Trump's attitude toward China.

Recently, because the progress in the U.S.-China tariff negotiations has been relatively obvious, Trump's tone toward China has clearly softened. Last week, it was even reported that in meetings with cabinet members, Trump "was often the least hawkish voice on China in the room."

Once the U.S.-China tariff negotiations are concluded and an agreement is reached, after that, as major favorable factors gradually lose their driving force, the influence of Rubio on Trump in China-related issues may become more pronounced.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530966241495007744/

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