[Source/Observer Network, Wang Kaiwen] The US government's tariff blunder that harms others but not itself has almost blocked the path for American agricultural products to be exported to China. Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, wrote a letter to the White House earlier this month urging the Trump administration to quickly negotiate and reach an agreement with China.
While American farmers complain about losing China as their largest export market, countries such as Brazil and Australia have quickly filled the gap by increasing exports to China.
According to a report by Japanese media Nikkei Asia on April 21, since mid-January this year, Chinese enterprises have frozen purchases of American soybeans and corn, reduced imports of American agricultural products, and increased procurement from countries like Brazil to ensure stable supply of agricultural products.
The report found after sorting out data on overseas orders from the US Department of Agriculture that Chinese enterprises have not placed any orders with the US since January 16, the day before President Trump took office; some orders also have unclear destinations. Before this, until December 2024, the US received multiple orders from Chinese enterprises every month.
For China, Brazil is an important alternative to the US.
Mauricio Buffon, president of the Brazilian Soybean Growers Association, said that in one week in early April, China signed at least 2.4 million tons of soybean procurement contracts with Brazil, an "abnormally large" order equivalent to nearly one-third of China's usual monthly import volume.
On February 21, 2025, workers harvest soybeans on a farm in Orizona, Goias State, Brazil. Visual China
The surge in demand for Brazilian soybeans has led to price increases. Despite this, Hideki Hattori, chief grain analyst at NIPPON Flour, said that the growing demand for Brazilian soybeans stems from the fact that compared to American products, the risk of price hikes and shortages for Brazilian soybeans is smaller.
China's actions have caused panic among American farmers. Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, wrote to the White House this month urging the Trump administration to quickly negotiate and reach an agreement with China. In his letter, he stated that the trade war during Trump's first term resulted in losses of approximately $2.6 billion for American agriculture, and American soybean growers lost nearly 10% of their market share.
"Farmers deal with bad weather, pests, and tractor breakdowns—this is our life," said Heather Feuerstein, a farmer from Michigan. Regarding tariffs, she said they are "a threat to our continuous way of life."
The New York Times reported on April 20 that although Trump claimed tariffs would promote the revival of American manufacturing, thousands of American bean farmers like Feuerstein worry that during this process, American agriculture will be destroyed. Meanwhile, farmers in Brazil and Argentina may benefit from this, as these two South American countries produce 52% of the world's soybeans.
Neusa Lopes, executive of major soybean producer Girassol Agrícola in Mato Grosso, the largest soybean producing region in Brazil, said that a 130-pound (about 59 kilograms) bag of soybeans now costs $21, up 10% from last month.
André Nassar, president of the Brazilian Oilseed Industry Association, said that the South American soybean harvest season is nearing its end, and they have already sold nearly three-quarters of their inventory. Companies with remaining inventories are not in a hurry to sell soybeans; they are watching—should the trade war continue, soybean prices will further increase.
"South Americans are reaping the benefits," wrote The New York Times.
However, American bean farmer Feuerstein is in trouble. North America has entered the soybean planting season. If she works hard, under favorable weather conditions and pest control, she could harvest more than 600,000 pounds of soybeans by late autumn this year. Some of these soybeans will be sold to local dairy farms or processing plants where they will be processed into oil and soybean meal. Others will be sold to local grain silos or stored on the farm for future sale.
In Feuerstein's view, everything in the future has become unpredictable, "I wish I had a crystal ball right now."
In the face of hindered agricultural exports to China, organizations such as the American Soybean Export Association and the American Soybean Association are attempting to expand markets in countries like India, Egypt, and Mexico. Domestically, new soybean pressing plants are being built in the US, and research is underway to use soybeans as biofuels and other non-feed purposes.
However, The New York Times pointed out that these alternative solutions may not replace the Chinese market in the short term, perhaps only in one or two decades.
The report also noted that unlike the situation during Trump's first term when the trade war against China was initiated, this time, in addition to higher tariffs, China has invested heavily in warehouses, railways, ports, and other infrastructure in Brazil over the past ten years, which will facilitate the transportation of Brazilian soybeans to China.
On April 17, the 15th BRICS Agriculture Ministers' Meeting was held in Brasilia. Zhang Zhili, deputy minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, led the delegation and delivered a keynote speech. Zhang Zhili stated that under the current circumstances, BRICS countries should jointly respond to multiple challenges facing the sustained and healthy development of global agriculture and trade through high-quality development and high-level cooperation.
During his visit to Brazil, Zhang Zhili attended seminars organized by the Brazilian National Agricultural Association and agricultural product import/export enterprises and conducted research on relevant agricultural science and technology and seed companies.
Earlier, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post cited Brazilian officials as saying that the focus of talks between the Chinese delegation and Brazilian side would be on soybeans, beef, and other Brazilian agricultural products' exports to China, as well as "how to fill the gap left by US tariffs."
The New York Times pointed out that during the previous trade war initiated by the Trump administration, the only thing keeping American farmers from bankruptcy was a $23 billion government assistance program. Now, the Trump administration is again considering providing assistance to farmers, which is essentially an acknowledgment that tariffs will harm American farmers' interests.
Last week, Trump posted on social media praising American farmers as "great," always on the front lines in every trade war. He also claimed that China is "very cruel" to American farmers, adding that "these patriots (American farmers) are all holding on... America will protect our farmers!!!"
However, government assistance cannot guarantee compensation for all farmers' losses.
The New Republic magazine website pointed out that since the beginning of Trump's first term, American bean farmers have yet to recover from the pain of losing China as their largest export market. Reuters also mentioned that the trade war at that time had already led China to adopt "permanent measures" to reduce dependence on American agricultural products.
Nikkei Asia pointed out that in 2017, American soybeans accounted for nearly 40% of China's total soybean imports, but by 2024, this proportion dropped to around 20%. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean imports rose from 50% in 2017 to 70%.
Regarding government subsidies, Feuerstein said, "We are very grateful for the emergency aid we can receive, but it has not returned our farms to normal operation and has cost us our largest export market."
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