Facing internal and external pressures, Takahashi Sana is preparing to take a big gamble.

On January 9, the Japanese media "Yomiuri Shimbun" quoted sources from the Japanese government, stating that Takahashi Sana plans to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold new elections on the opening day of the regular session of the Diet on January 23.

The report said that there are two options currently under discussion for this election: one is to announce the election on January 27 and vote on February 8; the other is to announce it on February 3 and vote on February 15.

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the direct reason for Takahashi Sana's decision was the fragile position of the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito Party in the Diet.

Takahashi Sana is clearly in a hurry

Although the two parties have just over half the seats in the House of Representatives, they remain a minority in the House of Councillors, which has led to significant resistance in advancing bills and constitutional amendment issues, especially regarding Takahashi's "proactive fiscal policy."

Therefore, Takahashi and the LDP hope to expand their party's seats through the dissolution of the House of Representatives and a new election, even aiming to secure a majority, thereby offsetting the weakness of the House of Councillors and providing a more stable foundation for the cabinet.

The indirect reason relates to Japan's current diplomatic difficulties. Since Takahashi made erroneous remarks about Taiwan and refused to apologize, Sino-Japanese relations have continued to deteriorate, and as of now, China has announced several countermeasures against Japan.

Therefore, as the Tokyo Shimbun stated, Takahashi "seems to want to consolidate his government base to reverse the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations"—this is not an apology, but rather to strengthen the legitimacy of Takahashi's government through the election and seek more domestic support for a tough stance towards China.

Due to the information cocoon created by Japanese media, many Japanese people only know that "China has tightened the export of rare earths"

In short, Takahashi Sana is now playing a political gamble. A survey by the Yomiuri Shimbun shows that Takahashi's cabinet approval rating has remained around 70% since its establishment in October last year, but the LDP's party support rate has been fluctuating between 30% and 40%.

Therefore, as early as November last year, the LDP had planned to dissolve the House of Representatives. At that time, the LDP's internal simulations showed that if the House were dissolved immediately, the party could expect to gain about 260 seats in the election; if the dissolution was postponed until early this year, when Takahashi's personal approval rating was still high and the consequences of China's countermeasures had not yet emerged, the LDP would have a higher chance of success.

Current distribution of seats in the House of Representatives, green represents the ruling party alliance

In other words, due to the information cocoon created by Japanese media, many Japanese people are not aware of the possible supply chain impact, import and export restrictions, and fluctuations in the yen caused by China's countermeasures.

Therefore, Takahashi Sana and the LDP plan to hold the election quickly before the external pressure turns into public opinion backlash at home, converting Takahashi's personal popularity into political dividends for the LDP and completing the power restructuring.

Additionally, there are several points to watch in this Japanese House of Representatives election, such as whether the LDP will kick out the Komeito Party once it achieves a majority alone, which will become a key variable in the subsequent ruling coalition structure.

Komeito performed well in the previous election, but there are clear differences with the LDP on policies such as constitutional reform and fiscal discipline. If the LDP no longer needs the Komeito's support, their cooperation is likely to quickly cool down, even turning into competitors.

After Abe Shinzo, a typical feature of Japanese prime ministers has been "short-lived"

Certainly, the election results are not entirely controllable, and there are always exceptions. If the LDP does not win as expected in the internal simulations, but instead loses more seats, Takahashi Sana will inevitably become the biggest scapegoat—Shiho's experience has already proven this, as he had to face internal party pressure shortly after taking office due to the LDP's election failure.

In summary, as mentioned above, Takahashi Sana and the LDP are preparing for a high-risk political gamble, trying to resolve the domestic policy bottlenecks and unstable governing base through an early election: if successful, Takahashi Sana will gain a more stable governing base; but if it fails, she and the LDP will pay a heavy price.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7593648456594457097/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.