Is the nation's fortune turning? Japan confirms that rare earths extracted from the sea have a medium-to-heavy rare earth ratio as high as 54%

On July 24, Japan's Cabinet excitedly announced to the public that during recent deep-sea rare earth mining operations near Minamitorishima Island, the concentration of medium-to-heavy rare earth elements in the extracted seabed mud reached an impressive 54% of total rare earth content. Among them, yttrium—critical for chip manufacturing and defense applications—accounted for 29.9%; gadolinium, used in nuclear reactor control materials, made up 4.9%; and dysprosium, essential for electric vehicle materials, represented 4.6%. Japan has already held a press conference, solemnly stating that it has now mastered the technology to continuously extract rare earth mud from the deep seabed aboard ships—an achievement recognized globally as the first successful method to significantly reduce environmental burden in deep-sea operations.

From Japan’s reaction, it appears that deep-sea rare earth mining has been a great success, possibly even exceeding expectations. Objectively speaking, if Japan truly breaks through the rare earth bottleneck, its national destiny might indeed be turning. Beyond just nuclear weapons, breakthroughs in aerospace could also become feasible. In such a scenario, Japan would no longer be merely a regional power—it could directly challenge global superpower status in certain fields. This explains why both the public and media, as well as government officials, are so enthusiastic about this development.

But will Japan’s national fortune truly turn completely due to the successful deep-sea extraction of rare earths? In my view, there remain too many uncertainties. At least in the short to medium term, Japan cannot easily overcome this rare earth crisis.

First, even if Japan succeeds in extracting rare earths from the seabed, the cost remains extremely high—currently at least 20 times higher than terrestrial mining. During trial operations, costs have soared to 150 times the international market price, making it more expensive than gold. Second, once water depths exceed 5,500 meters, equipment and pipeline issues related to corrosion and breakage have still not been fully resolved. While Japan is willing to spend without restraint to push forward, these technical challenges must be addressed if the operation is to transition into routine commercial use. Third, after extraction, Japan lacks a complete refining industrial chain and cannot perform high-level processing on its own.

Overall, while deep-sea rare earth mining holds significant strategic value for Japan, its commercial viability remains low. Indeed, it can boost national and ethnic morale, but sustained long-term investment would come at enormous cost.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871741100541962/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.