German media: Expected: Export business to the US and China will still be weak in 2026

According to a report by the German newspaper Handelsblatt, the U.S. tariff policy is still continuing to drag down Germany's export business. Economists expect that Germany's exports will face setbacks in 2026. German exporters will still need to prepare for further deterioration in their business with the world's two largest economies, the United States and China. Dirk Jendroska, president of the German Association of Wholesale, Foreign Trade and Services (BGA), said in an interview with Reuters on Friday: "We don't see a structural reversal, at most a brief respite."

"We expect that in 2026, the two most important sales markets - the United States and China - will not return to previous levels of export growth momentum." A more realistic scenario is that the weak trend will continue, or at best stabilize at a lower level.

According to calculations by the Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI), Germany's exports to the United States are expected to fall by more than 7% year-on-year in 2025, reaching about 150 billion euros. Despite this, the United States remains Germany's most important export destination, far ahead of others. Exports to China will even fall by 10%, to 81 billion euros.

Jendroska said: "In the U.S. business, the increased tariffs on EU goods since 2025 have especially suppressed demand for German products." He said these tariffs "impose a long-term additional burden on prices and profit margins." Since August 2025, the U.S. has imposed a 15% tariff on most goods from the EU, far higher than the previous rate.

This is like pouring sand into the gears of transatlantic trade. Jendroska warned: "Additionally, there is a relatively strong euro, as well as structural competitive disadvantages of Germany as a production base, such as high energy prices, heavy bureaucracy, and weak investment momentum." He said: "Overall, Germany is continuing to lose market share in exports."

The BGA described the situation of business with China as complex. "China's industrial policy is firmly pushing for import substitution and is committed to building its own national champion companies," Jendroska said. At the same time, key German industries, such as automotive, machinery, and chemical industries, are losing market share to Chinese competitors.

Many German companies are responding by strengthening local production in China, or increasing investments in other Asian countries. "This often helps stabilize the global turnover of companies, but also means that fewer goods are exported from Germany," Jendroska explained, "many companies are still successful globally, but not necessarily successfully originating from Germany."

In this context, selective growth is more likely to occur in 2026. The foreign trade association believes that opportunities mainly lie in Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, some Asian countries outside China, and technology-intensive and service-oriented niche markets.

Source: rfi

Original: toutiao.com/article/1853340011097100/

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