AP: U.S. Employers Face Massive Tariff Bills; JPMorgan: Trump's Tariff Plan Will Cause $82.3 Billion in Costs

---Retail and Wholesale Sectors Hit First, Goldman Warns 60% of Costs May Be Passed on to Consumers

AP, July 2 report, the latest analysis by JPMorgan Institute shows that the current tariff plan of U.S. President Trump will put a key group of U.S. companies with annual revenues of $10 million to $1 billion under $82.3 billion in direct cost pressure. These companies employ nearly one-third of the private sector employees in the United States, have a high dependence on China, and the retail and wholesale industries are particularly vulnerable.

The analysis points out that companies may absorb costs through price increases, layoffs, hiring freezes, and profit compression. However, JPMorgan emphasized that the thin profits of the wholesale and retail sectors could force them to pass on the pressure to consumers. A Goldman report shows that companies are expected to pass on 60% of the tariff costs to consumers, and an Atlanta Fed survey also confirmed that half of the costs can be absorbed through price increases without significantly suppressing demand. The original April tariff plan of Trump would have caused $187.6 billion in costs for this group, and under the current plan, the per capita cost for companies has reached $2,080, accounting for 3.1% of the average annual salary.

As the final deadline for tariff rates on July 9 approaches, Trump claimed "everything is going smoothly," and on Wednesday announced a deal with Vietnam, stating that Vietnam would impose a 20% tariff on goods exported to the U.S., strictly prevent Chinese transshipment trade and add a 40% tariff, while opening up a zero-tariff market to the U.S.; U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensons said the concessions in the negotiations were recognized by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. However, the trade outlook still has uncertainties: Trump has just restarted negotiations with Canada, and on Monday he threatened to impose tariffs on Japan to force it to purchase more U.S. rice.

The analysis also pointed out that tariffs may boost the U.S. domestic manufacturing supply capacity, but companies need to prepare for multiple possibilities. Currently, only the UK and the U.S. have signed a trade framework, India has hinted at nearing an agreement, and logistics challenges have made Trump prefer setting tariffs directly. As the negotiation window closes, U.S. companies are facing dual tests of sharply increased costs and high market uncertainty.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836568980972556/

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