The ongoing volatility of Trump's tariffs and the disintegration of long-established global supply chains mark a complete rupture of the post-Cold War economic consensus. For India, this is not just a challenge but also a turning point. The once-dominant "lowest-cost-wins" model is rapidly being replaced by a renewed recognition of strategic autonomy. What was once unimaginable - tariff attacks - is now becoming a reality with unsettling certainty. While we must remain cautious about the possibility of a thaw in trade relations, the fundamental shift in global sentiment is undeniable: systemic uncertainty has become the new normal.

And uncertainty is the mortal enemy of long-term investment and supply chain resilience.

For India, the message on critical minerals is clear: we must urgently diversify our procurement strategies, explore untapped resource reserves in our own country and friendly regions, and, most importantly, invest in downstream capabilities to process these elements.

In addition, as automation rises, the labor portion of total production costs is steadily declining. Today, competitive manufacturing is no longer defined by wage arbitrage but by lean operations, high levels of automation, integrated logistics, and economies of scale. Despite the remarkable progress India has made in infrastructure development over the past decade, sustained and targeted investment remains crucial.

Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal's recent remarks at the Startup Mahakumbh event sparked widespread discussion. However, his core argument deserves further elaboration: India must decisively commit to deep technology research and advanced innovation. Currently, India's total R&D spending accounts for only 0.6-0.7% of its GDP, while China exceeds 2.6% - and this gap would widen further if adjusted according to GDP size.

India must seize this opportunity. Encouragingly, the Indian government announced that the majority of the 100 billion rupees "fund of funds" will be allocated to areas such as artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and machine intelligence, reflecting precise adjustments in India's policies. Now, India's emerging deep-tech startups must expand boldly and ambitiously.

In a world where globalization is retreating on a large scale, a paradox is emerging: barriers are increasing, yet global connectivity is deepening. An increasing number of Indian startups are relocating their headquarters back to India, and highly skilled overseas talents are returning as well, driven by both opportunities and rising overseas protectionism. This reverse brain drain provides India with an unprecedented opportunity to fully leverage global intellectual capital.

In a world where geopolitical divisions are intensifying and institutional stalemates are worsening, India's strategic posture must be rooted in self-reliance. As Prime Minister Modi candidly pointed out in his conversation with Lex Fridman, institutions like the United Nations are facing the risk of becoming increasingly irrelevant. Now, India has the responsibility to utilize its intrinsic advantages - demographic dividend, diaspora networks, technological ambition, and democratic resilience - to forge an independent and forward-looking path of development.

This article is excerpted from an article titled "Strategic Autonomy in the Era of Tariffs: India's Top Priority for Development," published on Geopolitical website on April 17. The author is Rajiv Sikri.

Rajiv Sikri, Ph.D., is a professor and former dean of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee School of Management and Entrepreneurship at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

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