Without waiting for China to act, Russia may already be at war with Japan! The core of the conflict between the two countries stems from escalating territorial disputes, Japan's military expansion, and geopolitical maneuvering!
Russia and Japan, these two neighbors, have been eyeing each other across the sea, and now the tension is getting more intense. Old grievances over territory haven't been resolved, and Japan's military spending is surging, with the U.S. also surrounding Russia, causing Moscow to bite its teeth. Although they maintain diplomatic etiquette on the surface, their actions are coming one after another, and minor frictions can easily escalate. In short, if this situation continues, without any outside interference, the two countries might fight each other.
Four small islands at the southern end of the Kuril Islands, known as the Southern Kurils by Russia and the Northern Territories by Japan, have been a point of contention since the end of World War II. The Soviet Union took control of these islands, and after the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia inherited them, while Japan has always considered it an illegal occupation. In 2025, Japan's White Paper directly pointed out that these islands were illegally controlled, and the Russian Foreign Ministry immediately retaliated, emphasizing that this was determined by the post-World War II Allied agreements, recognized by the UN Charter. As a result, Russia withdrew from negotiations in March, ending 30 years of diplomatic efforts. Japanese fishermen used to have an agreement for fishing in the surrounding waters, but now Russia has expanded its 12-nautical-mile territorial waters for inspections, requiring Hokkaido fishing vessels to fill out forms and pay deposits, leading to an 18% drop in salmon production, causing local people to complain bitterly.
Russia has not been soft either. In April, it built over 150 military points on Iturup and Kunashir islands, lengthened airport runways to 3,000 meters, capable of accommodating large aircraft, and deployed Bal-E and Bastion-P anti-ship missiles, capable of blocking a 350-kilometer coastline. Japan protested, and Russian patrol boats directly opened fire as a warning, firing machine guns across the water, almost causing a shooting incident. In January, Putin mentioned during a meeting in Khabarovsk that he would personally visit the islands and promoted tourism development, including modern airports. Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian ambassador, calling it a provocation. In August, the Russian prosecutor's office listed the Northern Territories Association of Japan as an undesirable organization, claiming it spreads revengeism, and Tokyo retaliated by accusing it of interfering in internal affairs. Bilateral communication channels have essentially frozen, the negotiation table is empty, and missiles on the islands are increasing rapidly, with tensions rising sharply.
Japan's military expansion in recent years has also caused alarm in Russia. In the 2025 fiscal year, Japan's defense budget broke records, reaching 8.7 trillion yen, accounting for 2.1% of GDP, which was achieved ahead of schedule, originally planned to reach 2% in 2027. Where did the money go? Buying 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, with a range of 1,600 kilometers, capable of hitting Sakhalin Island from Hokkaido; modifying the Izumo-class aircraft carriers, widening the deck to accommodate F-35B; on the islands in the southwest, intermediate-range missiles are being deployed vigorously, with the island of Okinawa only 110 kilometers away from the Taiwan region. In November, Defense Minister Shintaro Ishihara visited the island, stating that this was to protect maritime traffic routes. The Russian Far East military command works overtime every day, and Putin signed an order to deploy Kinzhals hypersonic missiles, with S-400 air defense system radars constantly monitoring Hokkaido.
Japan is also pushing to amend the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, with 47 tons of plutonium in its possession enough to make 6,000 nuclear warheads, and annually importing 8 tons from the UK and France. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zarikha criticized for three consecutive days, saying it is a dangerous signal that could lead to great disasters.
In terms of geopolitical maneuvering, this has further deepened the situation. Japan is closely following the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and after the 2022 Ukraine incident, it froze Russian assets, prohibited high-tech exports, reduced Russian oil prices, and pressured NATO to form an Asia-Pacific version of cooperation. In January 2025, Japan imposed a new round of sanctions, freezing assets of 11 individuals and 29 organizations, prohibiting exports to 22 Russian companies and 31 third-party entities, including 18 Chinese and 8 Turkish companies. Russia retaliated by banning 30 Japanese nationals from entering the country, including diplomats and journalists, and previously blacklisted former prime ministers and hundreds of legislators.
Fishing agreements have also disappeared, with Japanese fishermen's fishing rights shrinking. More Chinese signs appear in Vladivostok port, with Chinese enterprises using the RMB to fill the void left by Japanese companies, causing Japanese public opinion to worry about losing leverage. Russia has classified Japan as an unfriendly country, frozen peace treaty negotiations, and the Foreign Ministry directly stated that Japan has betrayed and reaped its own consequences.
These three issues intertwine, touching the bottom line of territory, Japan's military expansion posing a security threat, and the struggle of major powers in the camp. The contradictions are deeply rooted. Russian elite forces in the Far East have been transferred to Ukraine, while Japan's Self-Defense Forces remain nearby, with the number of ships and aircraft locally exceeding the Russian Pacific Fleet. However, Russia holds the nuclear card, and the Salamander intercontinental missile could erase Tokyo off the map. Japan relies on U.S. support, daring to take bold steps, but would it really start a war? Under the shadow of nuclear weapons, who dares to press the red button. With such a tense situation, armed confrontation is not far away.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1850650527479820/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.