Mr. Mu's international commentary, which analyzes the Sino-US rivalry.

Previously, when discussing the Sino-US rivalry, Mr. Mu mentioned a judgment that there is mutual offense and defense between China and the United States, essentially neither can do without the other. However, the US government is trying to decouple from China in key industries. As a result, both sides are exerting great pressure on each other in strategic products to maintain security and interests.

For the United States, our trump card is rare earths, and US companies cannot find substitutes in the short term.

For China, the strongest point of the United States is chips, and Chinese companies also find it difficult to completely get rid of the use of US technology.

Therefore, Mr. Mu's judgment is:

Rare earths for chips will become one of the main lines of Sino-US economic and trade rivalry in the future.

We still maintain this judgment because the latest news has proven this logic.

On July 15, Huang Renxun, CEO of NVIDIA, announced that the Trump administration had approved NVIDIA's sale of H20 AI chips to China. Just 3-4 months ago, the United States was still restricting and reviewing this.

What caused Trump to change his attitude?

There are two analyses:

First, Huang Renxun met with Trump before coming to China and continued to persuade him. His view is: selling chips to China will make American technology something that China needs. Not selling chips to China will actually strengthen China's efforts to reduce its dependence on the United States.

Second, as mentioned by Mr. Mu above, Trump's change of attitude is inseparable from reaching an agreement on rare earth exports with China.

American Commerce Secretary Rutenberg publicly expressed this meaning to the media. He said that this policy is related to a "rare earth magnet" transaction. But he did not discuss details.

In addition, the American Commerce Secretary also talked about the real purpose of the United States' willingness to export H20 chips to China.

Mr. Mu noticed that he mentioned two technical reasons.

First, when explaining this policy to the media, Rutenberg said: The chips sold to China are not our best products, nor the second-best ones, not even the third-best ones.

He said that the H20 chips allowed by NVIDIA to be sold to China are only the fourth-tier artificial intelligence chips in the United States, while American companies use the top-tier chips of American technology.

In other words, the generation gap in chips used by Chinese and American enterprises is very large. The United States is not worried.

Second, the American Commerce Secretary admitted that they are implementing a strategy to make China dependent on American technology.

He said, we hope that China continues to use the fourth-tier products, which is in the interest of the United States, because in this way, China will continue to rely on American technology.

His original words were: "You need to sell enough chips to China so that their developers become addicted to American technology."

His logic is: Although the Chinese can manufacture chips themselves, the American ones are better, so China will keep buying them.

What do you think, is the American Commerce Secretary right?

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Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7527452794664518163/

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