【By Observer Net, Liu Bai】

A new study released by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) on September 18 shows that the United States' reliance on imports from the European Union is far greater than commonly perceived, with this dependency significantly increasing over the past decade and a half, with total value and quantity even exceeding its reliance on China. German media pointed out that this dependency should have become a bargaining chip for the EU, and researchers were surprised that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen managed to secure only a 15% tariff, stating, "The EU could have taken a stronger stance in tariff negotiations with the US."

The report shows that the US's import dependence on the EU remains high for nearly 180 categories of goods classified as strategic.

Additionally, the US's import dependence on the EU has significantly increased over the past decade and a half. At least 50% of the number of product categories from the EU increased from over 2,600 in 2010 to 3,120 in 2024, an increase of about 19%; at the same time, the total import value of these products increased from 116 billion dollars to 287 billion dollars, an increase of nearly 150%. The product categories include chemical products, electronic products, machinery and equipment, etc.

In contrast, in 2024, the US had at least 2,925 product categories from China, with a total value of 247 billion dollars.

The report points out that the higher and more sustained the import share, the more irreplaceable the EU products may be for US buyers, although further information is needed to draw final conclusions.

Over the past five years, more than 1,300 types of products (total value of 132 billion dollars) reached the minimum threshold of at least 50% import share from the EU. In terms of value, they accounted for about 21% of all products imported by the US from the EU. That means, for every two highly dependent products, one has remained in a state of high dependence for the past five years.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen IC Photo

Looking at Germany alone, in 2024, there were 466 product categories where the US import share from Germany was at least 50%, totaling 18 billion dollars, accounting for 11% of the total imports from Germany. There were still more than 190 product categories with a 75% share, and over 100 categories with a 90% share, and 43 categories with a 100% share. Unlike the overall EU, the US's import dependence on Germany is mainly industrial products, and it has generally stagnated. Over the past five years, 153 product categories have consistently met the 50% share threshold, totaling 7.8 billion dollars.

The report finally proposed several policy recommendations for the EU. For example, setting up a government-level international value chain analysis working group to identify truly critical trade dependencies, whether it is the EU's own dependencies or the US's dependencies on the EU.

Additionally, the EU needs to strengthen its internal market and internal trade, enhance competitiveness, promote reforms to boost growth, reduce internal trade barriers within the EU, and enhance resilience against external pressures.

At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the negotiation of free trade agreements with emerging economies to diversify dependence on exports to the US. For this, the EU needs to adopt a more pragmatic and innovative approach to attract protectionist countries such as India and Indonesia, and properly address resistance from the EU's agricultural sector.

The researchers implied in the report that the EU could have taken a stronger stance in tariff negotiations with the US, because the US's reliance on imports from the EU is significantly higher than expected, and these EU products may be difficult to replace in the short term, so the burden of tariffs would mainly fall on the US economy, just like when Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports during his first term.

The report believes that given these factors, the credibility of the US threatening to raise tariffs is low, because this could cut off the US's access to key products, prompting the US to seek a resolution of the conflict. When necessary, the EU can also use export restrictions to the US as a last bargaining chip.

Der Spiegel pointed out that, according to the researchers of the study, this dependence of the US on the EU actually highlights the political capital of the EU. However, it is surprising that von der Leyen managed to secure only a 15% tariff for EU products in her July talks with US President Trump - while the much smaller UK only had to bear a 10% tariff.

Samina Sultan, one of the authors of the report, said that pure trade data is not sufficient to fully reflect the importance of these products to US buyers, but the research results are enough to show the US that if they continue to raise tariffs, it will be like "kicking the bucket."

On August 21, the US and the EU officially announced the final details of the trade framework agreement, which centered on significantly reducing the high tariffs previously planned by the US, but at the same time, the EU needs to further open its market to US products.

According to the joint statement between the US and the EU, the US will set a 15% tariff cap on most EU goods exported to the US, replacing the previously higher rates. This "all-inclusive" tariff applies to about 70% of EU exports to the US, including a wide range of products such as cars and parts, semiconductors, drug ingredients, and wood. The US will lower the 27.5% import tax on EU cars to 15%, but this requires the EU to start legislative procedures to fulfill its commitment to canceling tariffs on US industrial products.

Although the final compromise agreement set the tariff cap at 15%, lower than the 30% threatened by Trump, it is still much higher than the previous average tariff level of less than 5% between the US and the EU, but this result has disappointed many Europeans.

Regarding this agreement, a public opinion survey conducted by French company Cluster17 and the magazine Le Grand Continent in September showed that 77% of EU citizens believe that the EU leadership has sold the interests of the general European people by reaching a trade agreement with the Trump administration, and 52% of people think the agreement is a "humiliation" for the EU.

As many as 75% of people believe that von der Leyen failed to protect the EU's interests, while only 19% gave her a positive evaluation. Another 77% of people stated that the trade agreement mainly benefits the US economy, and 42% of people believe that EU companies will suffer the most severe impact. At the same time, 70% of people claimed they are prepared to boycott American-made products.

Similarly, 41% of people expressed "complete distrust" in von der Leyen, followed by 31% who said "not very trustworthy". When asked about von der Leyen's future, 39% of people said they "strongly support" her resignation, 21% said they "somewhat support", and only 8% said they "strongly oppose".

"Politico" reported on September 8 that von der Leyen is about to face an angry and unmanageable European Parliament, and the obvious lack of leadership has disappointed the parliamentarians, which is why they are preparing to attack von der Leyen.

Although von der Leyen passed the no-confidence vote in the European Parliament on July 10 with 360 votes against and 175 votes in favor, a new campaign is already being planned, and it is expected to be launched earliest in October, targeting von der Leyen's silence on the Israel-Palestine conflict and the US-EU trade agreement issue.

This article is an exclusive article from Observer Net. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

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