On Sunday evening, some stock market investors expressed concerns online about the possibility that Trump might not have exempted Chinese electronic products from tariffs, and that the optimistic interpretation was a misreading.

The information stating that Chinese electronics were exempted from 125% "reciprocal tariffs" while retaining 20% of the so-called "fentanyl tariffs" should be relatively clear. However, on Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Luetnick further stated that "this is not a permanent exemption, and electronics will be included in the upcoming tariff scope within one or two months." But he did not specify what those tariffs would be. Additionally, Trump mentioned on Saturday that he would provide a very clear answer on Monday. Overall, this matter has not been fully settled, and there are still uncertainties ahead.

So how should the current situation and the future development trend of this matter be viewed?

Firstly, regarding the exemption of 125% "reciprocal tariffs" for Chinese electronics, mainstream American and Western media have largely made positive summaries. Some media hesitated on this issue on Friday night, but later, after verifying with the White House spokesperson and interpreting the customs tariff guidelines, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, the British Guardian, and others used titles similar to "Trump Exempts China's Smartphones, Computers, and Other Electronic Products from Tariffs." Bloomberg and others explicitly interpreted that "this move is the first significant de-escalation measure in Trump's conflict with China." By Sunday evening, no new information had emerged to refute these media interpretations.

Moreover, an important point is that neither Trump nor White House officials denied the conclusions drawn by the media. Normally, if they completely lacked such intentions, they would quickly come out to deny it. Many media outlets specifically asked the White House about this issue; they could choose not to respond, but lying to the media carries too much risk. From Friday night until now, the Trump team has not made further attacks on China; their main stance over the past two days has been "hoping to reach an agreement with China." In the interview mentioned earlier, Luetnick also said: "I am confident that we will ultimately reach a completely reasonable agreement with China."

Apple is crucial to the United States, and China is Apple's largest production base. Previously, Apple had always received exemptions during the trade war. This time, Apple's statement was very low-key, and the Trump team has not mentioned Apple harshly recently. Apple's lobbying efforts have been ongoing. The more low-key its actions, the more likely it is a signal that Apple can be exempted.

Luetnick's remarks about separately introducing semiconductor industry tariffs seem to apply to all semiconductor products and are not a specific policy declaration against China. If mobile phones and computers, among other electronic products, are excluded from the already high "reciprocal tariffs," then the "semiconductor industry tariffs" should not have a reason to discriminate against Chinese products. Otherwise, if they exempt Chinese electronics this time and treat them equally with those of other countries and regions, providing a favor for companies like Apple, it would lose its significance. They could exempt electronics from other regions and countries this time, but if they do not exempt China's 125%, and after exempting them, add back the "semiconductor industry tariffs" within one or two months, the damage to Apple would only worsen, and it would further tarnish Trump's reputation for flip-flopping policies.

Comprehensively analyzing the above points, Hu Shixiang personally tends to believe that the customs tariff guidelines of the United States indeed open a door for Chinese electronics, but the key is in the hands of the Trump team. This matter will not be resolved smoothly, nor will it be "decided once and for all." Trump likes to create uncertainties, and he has left this shadow on this issue, making the retreat itself into a card to scare the Chinese into fearing the loss of this opportunity.

The sparring between China and the U.S. is certainly not over yet, and the upcoming games will remain extremely complex. Trump will make various moves, but we must also see that this should be considered the most intense phase of his "three strokes." Now he has encountered difficulties and is starting to find ways to step down, appropriately contracting his frontlines. Therefore, it is highly probable that he will not dare to severely harm companies like Apple, which represent American pride, due to the tariff war with China. Exempting Apple while somewhat forgiving Chinese companies in Apple's supply chain should be the prevailing trend. As for relocating Apple back to the U.S., that is not something that can happen overnight. It is certain that he will not see it during his term.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829304498633740/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views.