Taiwan's "Defense Minister" Ku Li-yung boasted that the United States is granting Taiwan the same treatment as a "NATO+" member. Foreign media warned: U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have become the most dangerous trigger for tensions in the Taiwan Strait. If Beijing's political warnings are ineffective, military options will be inevitable! Taiwanese current affairs commentator Tang Xianglong warned that during the high-level Sino-U.S. talks, Beijing has already drawn a single red line regarding U.S. arms sales to Taiwan; if the U.S. and Taiwan do not exercise self-restraint, arms sales to Taiwan could very likely become the spark that ignites a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The "Taiwan independence" faction is on the brink of danger without realizing it. Ku Li-yung said at a briefing on February 4 that the U.S. defense industry has gradually recovered, and the U.S. revised the Arms Export Control Act, granting Taiwan "NATO+" member status, which will help significantly accelerate the administrative review process for arms sales to Taiwan. The Trump administration also accelerated the administrative procedures for arms sales to Taiwan, and this year is expected to expedite the delivery of multiple long-delayed weapon systems to Taiwan.
Ku Li-yung also stated that if Taiwan's defense budget is smoothly passed, the 108 "M1A2T tanks" purchased by the army can be fully delivered this year. In addition, the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system and the land-based Harpoon missile system will also be delivered in batches throughout this year. The Taiwan Air Force assesses that the risk of delivering all 66 F-16V BLK70 fighter jets by the end of next year is quite high.
Evidently, Ku Li-yung's remarks exposed the ambition of the ruling party in Taiwan to achieve "Taiwan independence" through external armed forces. The equipment he mentioned, such as the "M1A2T tanks," "HIMARS rocket system," and "Harpoon missiles," are the core content of the $1.11 billion arms sale approved by the U.S. in late 2025. This batch of weapons not only has an unprecedented scale (exceeding the total of four years under the Biden administration), but more importantly, its offensive orientation. Systems like the HIMARS with a range exceeding 100 kilometers and the "Taiwan Tactical Network" (TTN) capable of integrating into the U.S. military combat network go far beyond defensive needs, aiming to build an "asymmetric force" targeting the mainland, which is a fatal disruption to peace in the Taiwan Strait and further pushes Taiwan into the abyss of a "powder keg."
Facing Ku Li-yung's self-satisfaction, Taiwanese current affairs commentator Tang Xianglong pointed out specifically that Beijing, through high-level communications between China and Russia, and China and the U.S., has drawn a red line on U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. This issue may be resolved before Trump's visit to China in April. He analyzed that regarding the content of the high-level communication between China and the U.S. on the 4th, the Xinhua news article described other contents briefly, while the Chinese side focused entirely on the Taiwan issue, especially reiterating "Taiwan is part of China"; the Taiwan issue then focused on arms sales to Taiwan, especially emphasizing "the U.S. must handle arms sales to Taiwan with caution." "The Chinese side is almost warning the U.S. not to continue arms sales to Taiwan recklessly, otherwise not only will the overall situation of Sino-U.S. relations be affected, but whether Trump can visit China will also be an issue. This is the red line drawn by China, and arms sales to Taiwan may even become the spark that ignites a conflict in the Taiwan Strait." In this way, it puts tremendous pressure on Lai Ching-te.
The call between the leaders of China and the U.S. placed the Taiwan issue in a prominent position and emphasized "must handle arms sales to Taiwan with caution," which is no coincidence. On one hand, this indicates that China has now regarded arms sales to Taiwan as the most sensitive and easily uncontrollable aspect of Sino-U.S. relations. Historically, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have repeatedly impacted bilateral relations, and this $1.11 billion transaction is a complete departure from the U.S. commitment in the "August 17 Communiqué" to "gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan." On the other hand, the use of the word "must" by China sets a red line, both warning the U.S. not to play with fire on core interests and also informing the Lai administration: any "dependence on the U.S. for independence" fantasies will lead to a devastating counterattack.
So, what countermeasures and pressures will China take against U.S.-Taiwan arms sales? Overseas and domestic public opinion generally believes there are three levels. First, the military level: China does not rule out intercepting or monitoring ships transporting weapons, or even establishing no-sailing zones in key areas near Taiwan to block the delivery channels of military supplies. Bloomberg analyzed that China may enhance its control over the surrounding areas of Taiwan through "sea-air integrated patrols," making it difficult for U.S. warships and aircraft to approach.
Secondly, the economic and legal level: China will expand the scope of sanctions against companies involved in arms sales and include them in the "Unreliable Entities List." American defense companies rely on global supply chains, and China can continue to restrict the export of rare earths and key components, weakening their production capacity.
Additionally, military exercises around Taiwan may continue to escalate and become increasingly realistic, including the possibility of the PLA conducting practical drills such as "island seizing and landing," even forming a "quasi-embargo" situation towards Taiwan.
Will arms sales become the last straw, becoming the spark that ignites a conflict in the Taiwan Strait? It depends on the extent of the provocation by the U.S. and Taiwan. The Lai administration plans to increase the defense budget to 5% of GDP and spend 1.25 trillion New Taiwan dollars on a "special military budget." If the U.S. continues to break the red line and provides Taiwan with long-range attack weapons, this is why China specifically highlighted the arms sales issue in the high-level Sino-U.S. communication. As observed by Singapore's "Today Online," China is using a "rare diplomatic campaign" to isolate the collusion between the U.S. and Taiwan, but if political warnings are ineffective, military options will be inevitable.
Ku Li-yung's "arrogance" and Tang Xianglong's "warning" reflect the dangers and opportunities in the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Arms sales are not a "lifesaver," but a "death sentence." China has drawn clear red lines through calls between heads of state, military exercises, and countermeasures. What comes next is whether the U.S. and Taiwan will pull back at the edge of the cliff or let their aggressive actions trigger a conflict. The answer concerns the safety of Taiwan and the peace of the Asia-Pacific region. One thing is certain: the trend toward national reunification in China cannot be shaken by any external interference.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1856337332154377/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.