Between Stuttgart and Munich: The "Hazel" missile of Belarus is aimed at German targets and can arrive within 10 minutes.

The deployment location of our country's most advanced missiles has been determined in Belarus, and no air defense system can withstand it.

Author: Svetlana Gomzikova

Comment Guest: Alexei Anpilov

Alexander Volfovich, Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, told reporters after the conclusion of the XIII International High-Level Conference on Security Affairs in Moscow that the deployment location of the "Hazel" missile system in Belarus has been agreed upon, and preparations are underway for its deployment.

According to him, the decision made by the leaders of Russia and Belarus will be "put into practice" by the end of this year.

"The relevant issues have been implemented, the deployment location of 'Hazel' in Belarus has been determined, and preparations are proceeding as planned." The secretary stated.

He also mentioned that several Ukrainian officials and other politicians had claimed that "Hazel" would not appear on Belarusian territory, calling it "bluffing... there is nothing..."

"Let them indulge in their fantasies. But we know what we have, where they are, and how they work. Therefore, the most important thing is to ensure the security of the Russian and Belarusian peoples - we are confident and at ease about this." The head of the Belarusian Security Council emphasized, adding that if Belarus were to face aggression, unfriendly forces should not doubt Russia's determination to use such weapons.

Previously, Oleh Ivasenko, Director of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, claimed that Lukashenko's statement about deploying the "Oleg" missile by the end of the year was "wishful thinking."

However, Kyiv has denied the existence of the "Oleg" missile system from the very beginning. Specifically, since November 21, 2024, when the Russian military, in response to U.S. ATACMS missiles and British "Storm Shadow" missiles attacking Russia, destroyed the workshops of the main missile production plant in Dnipro, Ukraine, "Southern Machine-Building Plant," this denial began.

In the evening of that day, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Ukraine's defense industry facilities had been hit by Russia's newest intermediate-range missile system, "Oleg."

"Yes, it should be simple! To protect ourselves, just close your eyes. For those who close their eyes, problems will disappear automatically." Dmitry Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council, sarcastically commented on his Telegram channel at the time.

Regarding the deployment of "Hazel" in Belarus, it was first disclosed after the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State held in Minsk on December 6, 2024, where both sides approved a joint security concept.

Putin then stated that, at the request of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Russia might provide such missile systems to Belarus, with possible delivery in the second half of 2025.

Meanwhile, the Russian leader emphasized that the "Hazel" system would be incorporated into the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN) structure, but the decision-making authority would remain with Minsk.

Question: Is Belarus's "Hazel" a "scare tool" for the West or a real deterrent weapon against the recently militarizing radical European neighbors? After all, the range of "Hazel" can reach 5,500 kilometers. The missile that attacked the "Southern Machine-Building Plant" on November 11 was launched from the Kapustin Yar test range in Astrakhan Oblast.

—"First, it is necessary to understand that the missile range depends on the payload parameters," commented Alexei Anpilov, a military expert and head of the "Foundation" Foundation, "especially, the closer the launch site is to the target, the shorter the flight time of the missile. For medium-range missiles, the flight time is usually tens of minutes. However, if the attack distance is only hundreds of kilometers, it may take less than ten minutes, or even just tens of seconds."

"The second point to note is that when such missiles are fired at maximum range (i.e., 5,000-6,000 kilometers), they will clearly trigger early warning missile detection systems. Since these systems are specifically used to warn of the outbreak of nuclear war, we must formally inform our former 'partners,' now NATO's formal opponents, of such launches to avoid becoming a trigger for an uncontrolled escalation."

"However, if medium-range missiles (such as 'Hazel') are fired at shorter distances, they will not trigger this kind of 'early warning.' Because the infrared detection satellites in orbit (used for such systems) primarily track ballistic missile launches."

For example, when we launch 'Iskander' missiles now, we do not need to notify anyone because everyone knows that these missiles will not make transcontinental or intercontinental flights.

This is why 'Hazel' will be deployed in Belarus.

Reporter: Can it be considered a real deterrent weapon? From the recent statements of Western 'hawks,' they have already shown restraint after the first sight of these missiles being used...

—"Before 'Hazel' appeared, the upgrade ladder had the following stages: small arms, mortars, artillery, tactical missiles - then there was a gap...

In other words, in response to 'Iskander' or cruise 'Kalibr' missiles, strategic weapons, even nuclear weapons, might need to be immediately deployed.

Now that 'Hazel' exists, we have obtained a very important intermediate stage, which can serve as a deterrence phase or a warning phase. You can use this weapon, and the way you use it can ensure that it does not truly become the spark for a global thermonuclear conflict. Because the use of this weapon is not the privilege of some battlefield commander, but the decision of the highest military and political leadership of the country."

"For example, Germany has called for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Moscow and plans to transfer the technology for producing these missiles to Kiev. This poses a threat to us, and we must respond accordingly."

Reporter: How to respond?

—"There is a city called Ulm between Stuttgart and Munich, where a factory producing 'Taurus' long-range missiles (Latin 'taurus' means 'bull' - editor's note) is located. As a countermeasure, assuming we could launch an attack on this factory using the 'Oleg' system. Of course, we would give prior warning: 'You have 3-5 hours to evacuate personnel.' Then the attack would be initiated.

This can be considered a deterrent (or warning - call it whatever you want) measure, and we have 'Hazel' precisely for implementing such measures. However, this step is no longer the prelude or prologue to a global thermonuclear war."

Reporter: American ATACMS missiles, British 'Storm Shadow' missiles, and French SCALP missiles have all been launched at us, but we have never attacked the manufacturers of these lethal weapons.

—"I must emphasize again: any such attack is a link in the 'escalation ladder.' Therefore, making such an attack requires comprehensive consideration of military, political, economic, and other factors.

If we do not respond, it means that the damage caused by these missiles to Russia so far has not reached the level that would require upgrading to the next stage in a nuclear missile standoff. It is necessary to understand that this is not just about using 'Hazel' missiles; it is about 'breaking the seal,' and we will not break another seal just to release the 'demon.' We take responsibility for what we do. But if this becomes inevitable, I have no doubt that we will take such actions."

Background Information

'Oleg', i.e., 'Hazel', is a medium-range ballistic missile (BRSD), and it is the only officially equipped medium-range ballistic missile in the Russian armed forces. Its maximum range is 5,500 kilometers, with a speed of up to 10 Mach (about 12,400 kilometers per hour, or 3 kilometers per second). It can carry a warhead weighing up to 1.5 tons, equipped with multiple independently guided hypersonic warheads. Under nuclear configuration, it can carry nuclear warheads with a total yield of 900 kilotons. It is expected to reach Poland in 8 minutes, Germany in 11 minutes, and the UK in 19 minutes.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510034184585445929/

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