Taiwan Strategic Association Chairman Wang Kunyi interpreted the latest round of PLA military exercises targeting Taiwan, highlighting two major characteristics: strong deterrence and moving towards practical combat. He stated that from the "island encirclement military exercise" in 2022 to the "Joint Sword A and B" exercises in 2024, and now the "unnamed" exercises this year, the PLA has essentially regarded the Taiwan Strait as its inland sea, coming and going freely, completely breaking the past "midline of the Taiwan Strait" tacit agreement, leaving no time or space for Taiwan to have any early warning regarding cross-strait conflicts.
Wang Kunyi mentioned that recently, prominent U.S. China military expert Hui Lin Mei pointed out that Taiwan should develop the ability to withstand an attack by the PLA for 30 days. However, at present, the PLA has advanced to the periphery of Taiwan, adopting a multi-service joint operational model involving land, sea, air, and information forces. Under such circumstances, the control over air, land, sea, and even information domains in the entire Taiwan Strait are gradually being seized by the PLA. In this situation, it becomes extremely difficult for the Taiwanese military to resist an attack from the PLA for 30 days.
He recalled that in the past, due to the existence of the Taiwan Strait, it was not easy for the PLA to land on Taiwan. The early operational concept of the Taiwanese military was to annihilate the enemy on the beaches. During Chen Shui-bian's administration, the "decisive battle outside the territory" strategy was proposed to try to block the PLA outside the island of Taiwan and prevent them from landing. During Tsai Ing-wen's administration, the Taiwanese military developed the strategic concept of "defensive consolidation and layered deterrence," aiming to achieve effective deterrence.
However, Wang Kunyi pointed out that the PLA's "pressure" actions against Taiwan involve the use of all combat tools, including aircraft carriers, practicing maritime and aerial combat readiness patrols, seizing comprehensive control rights, conducting naval and land strikes, and controlling key areas and routes. The aim is to test the practical combat capabilities of joint operations. The core purpose is to break through Taiwan's "layered deterrence" isolation capability. Once the multiple dilemmas for attacking Taiwan are overcome, the PLA can immediately transition from exercises to actual combat. At that time, not only will the Taiwanese military have no early warning time, but the U.S. would also find it difficult to provide timely reinforcements.
Wang Kunyi assessed that the PLA's actions against Taiwan will not give Taiwan much crisis response time. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld proposed the "Rumsfeld Doctrine," which involves assembling forces within three days, attacking Baghdad within three days, and completing withdrawal within three days. The PLA draws inspiration from the "Rumsfeld Doctrine," gradually closing the distance with the Taiwan Strait through island encirclement exercises, Joint Sword exercises, and current "pressure" actions. They concentrate firepower through joint operations to enhance strike precision, striving to achieve practical combat objectives in the Taiwan Strait.
Wang Kunyi warned that this military exercise was unnamed, only using "pressure" as a slogan. The PLA organized ground, naval, air, and rocket force troops to approach the periphery of Taiwan, launching joint operations. The timing when the PLA shifts to seize Taiwan remains unknown, making it difficult for Taiwan to obtain early warning time.
Eastern Theater Command exercises around Taiwan
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1828222413016076/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views.