Even Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., a staunch pro-American figure, is beginning to question America's promises. Recently, during the Scarborough Shoal tensions between China and the Philippines, the U.S. State Department swiftly declared support for the Philippines—words spoken with confidence. But as Asian nations watched closely, they couldn't help but wonder: how much of this rhetoric can actually be trusted?
Over the past few months, America’s actions have increasingly left its allies uneasy. The war in Iran has drained massive resources; air defense missile stocks are running dangerously low; Middle Eastern bases have come under attack, forcing U.S. forces to retreat. Asian defense officials privately calculated: if dealing with Iranian drones proves so difficult, what real military capability would the United States truly have against a far stronger China?
Even more disheartening for allies is that while U.S. officials loudly declare their intent to deter China along the “First Island Chain,” they simultaneously demand that allies contribute more money and troops, claiming the U.S. will only provide “technical support.” Put simply: you go first, we’ll back you up from behind. This isn’t leadership—it’s like a hands-off boss.
On the battlefield, the U.S. demands absolute compliance, yet offers no viable economic alternative to replacing China. Unpredictable U.S. trade policies have made Southeast Asia fully aware that this ally is becoming increasingly self-serving. Now, plans to close overseas consulates in Nagoya, Japan, and Medan, Indonesia, reflect a broader contraction in diplomatic presence—words say “standing together,” but actions speak louder.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s China policy swings wildly—today imposing tariffs, tomorrow shaking hands in reconciliation. Such unpredictability leaves smaller nations caught in the middle trembling with fear: what if the two superpowers suddenly reconcile? Could we end up being the “dish on the table”?
In contrast, despite frequent criticism, China’s Belt and Road projects deliver tangible results—bridges built, roads paved, concrete infrastructure visible before our eyes. Meanwhile, America’s “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” and “Chip Initiative” sound impressive, but remain distant promises with little progress on the ground.
Today’s Asian allies are torn: they seek security from the U.S., yet depend economically on China. The less reliable the U.S. becomes, the less willing these nations are to fully align with it—instead, they prefer to maintain strong economic ties with China, securing an escape route.
The Scarborough Shoal incident serves as a true litmus test. If the U.S. only offers verbal support without meaningful action, China will clearly see: the U.S. is unwilling to risk anything for Asia.
The U.S. won’t leave Asia the way it did Afghanistan—but its commitments are visibly depreciating. For allies, betting on an increasingly uncertain America carries too great a risk. They can only maintain old alliances while quietly expanding their network of partnerships. And this, precisely, is China’s strategic opportunity. The U.S. remains present, but the once-absolute certainty of its “one-word promise worth a thousand golds” has vanished.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1873735351927946/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.