American think tank: After the retirement of the International Space Station, China (and possibly Russia) will have an active space station in low Earth orbit. The United States will not

The International Space Station (ISS) has been the core of U.S. human spaceflight for 25 years. Some people (rightly) believe that the ISS is approaching its end, as it consumes a large amount of much-needed resources, preventing the U.S. from pursuing more profitable (although more costly) human spaceflight programs, such as returning to the Moon or landing on Mars, and limiting U.S. astronauts to the safety of Earth's orbit. Nevertheless, since the cancellation of the Space Shuttle program over a decade ago, the ISS has kept the U.S. human spaceflight program running.

But those days are about to end.

The end of the International Space Station is near

No matter how Washington demands, NASA will have to face the reality of the ISS's impending retirement. This is because the station is nearing the end of its service life and, for safety reasons, it will eventually retire. Of course, NASA may be able to keep the ISS operational for a few more years. But ultimately, the station's lifespan is counting down.

Currently, the U.S. does not have a viable plan to maintain its semi-permanent presence in Earth orbit. This is a dilemma for Washington. Unlike the U.S., China now has an advanced modular space station and maintains a semi-permanent presence in orbit, allowing their space program to continue after the ISS retires. Additionally, Moscow claims that by 2030, it will have its own modular space station in a high-inclination polar orbit around Earth.

Meanwhile, the U.S. does not have a real plan to maintain a strategic presence in Earth orbit, let alone beyond it.

There are speculations that the U.S. will abandon its NASA-centered human spaceflight model and shift towards a commercial model - especially in space station operations. These space stations will be built and operated by private companies, with NASA leasing them from private aerospace companies.

Presence in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is crucial to U.S. national security

NASA's focus on space beyond LEO is commendable. However, completely abandoning the ISS is shortsighted from a strategic perspective, especially when both China and Russia are rapidly seizing strategic high ground. Should the ISS be decommissioned? If all planned private space station projects experience real delays, then China's Tiangong space station will be the only space station in orbit operated by a sovereign nation.

Moreover, Beijing plans to welcome other countries to the Tiangong space station, thereby expanding China's influence and prestige in the field of aerospace.

The end of the International Space Station indeed marks the end of an era. When it was built in the 1990s, it was at the peak of U.S.-Russia relations. More than two decades later, as it is about to end its illustrious lifecycle, U.S.-Russia relations have fallen to their lowest point since the Cold War.

The retirement of the International Space Station also means that NASA will permanently rely on those unpredictable private aerospace companies. In a way, the rise of the private space economy is undoubtedly a good thing. However, NASA must be cautious to ensure that it has some degree of self-existence in orbit - an existence that represents all American taxpayers, not just billionaires and those who are about to become billionaires.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Brandon J. Vechtet

Date: November 23

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849636542886912/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself