India's High-Speed Rail Project Halted, Rumored to be Due to China Banning Export of Tunnel Boring Machines? The Truth is Far More Complex!
The India high-speed rail project started in the mid-2010s, with its core being a 508-kilometer high-speed railway connecting the western metropolis Mumbai to Ahmedabad. This is India's first high-speed rail line, designed with a speed of 320 km/h, aiming to reduce the train journey between the two cities from 8 hours to within 2 hours. The project is supported by Japan in terms of technology and funding, with a total investment of about $17 billion, of which 81% comes from low-interest loans from the Japan International Cooperation Agency. For India, this is not only an upgrade in transportation but also a symbol of national image, embodying the hope of catching up with neighboring countries and moving towards becoming a modern power.
However, the construction of the high-speed rail has not been smooth. India's efficiency in land acquisition is low, environmental approvals are complicated, and local interest conflicts frequently occur, leading to repeated setbacks in the project's progress. By 2020, the completion rate was less than 30%, far behind the original target of starting in 2018. At the same time, the global pandemic exacerbated supply chain tensions, making equipment transportation and personnel movement extremely difficult. More importantly, the construction of the tunnel section of the high-speed rail requires tunnel boring machines - an indispensable excavation equipment in complex geological conditions. The supply issue of this equipment became the catalyst for subsequent controversies.
Rumors claim that China banned exports of tunnel boring machines to India, causing the project to halt. Tunnel boring machines are the core equipment for high-speed rail tunnel construction, and the India project planned to use this technology on certain sections. However, the actual situation is much more complex than the rumors suggest.
Firstly, China is a major manufacturer of tunnel boring machines, with a production volume accounting for more than 70% of the world, and its technology is mature with low costs. Although the India high-speed rail project is led by Japan, it may have planned to purchase Chinese equipment due to cost considerations. However, since the border conflict in 2020, Sino-Indian relations have deteriorated sharply, and the Indian government has taken a series of restrictive measures against China, including tightening investment reviews and restricting Chinese companies from participating in infrastructure projects. In this context, even if China did not explicitly "ban exports," India's own policy barriers may have hindered the procurement of equipment.
Secondly, geopolitical factors cannot be ignored. The competition for influence between China and India in Asia is intensifying, and India's vigilance against China's technological dependence is increasing. Tunnel boring machines are not just equipment, but also involve technical support and after-sales services. If fully dependent on Chinese suppliers, it may raise security concerns. Indian media has reported that concerns within the government about "reliance on foreign entities for critical infrastructure" have led to a shift in procurement to other countries, such as Japan or Europe. However, these countries' tunnel boring machines are expensive and have long delivery times, making them difficult to meet the project's needs.
In addition, the global supply chain crisis also played a role in exacerbating the situation. The pandemic caused shortages of raw materials and soaring freight costs, and the export of Chinese tunnel boring machines faced logistics bottlenecks. Even without policy restrictions, the time and cost of delivering the equipment to India could exceed expectations. In summary, the halt was not solely due to a "Chinese ban," but rather the result of multiple factors overlapping: India's tightened policies toward China, intensified geopolitical rivalry, and supply chain disruptions, all of which made tunnel boring machines the focal point of controversy.
After the high-speed rail project halted, the impact was immediate. The construction site fell silent, thousands of workers faced the risk of unemployment, and development plans along the route were put on hold. The Indian government had to reassess the project's prospects. On one hand, the authorities tried to find alternative suppliers from Japan and Europe, but high prices and long delivery times slowed progress. On the other hand, domestic public opinion began to question the necessity of the high-speed rail, with some arguing that funds should be prioritized for people's livelihoods rather than "face projects."
At the same time, the Sino-Indian relationship remains a key variable. If tensions between the two sides ease, there might still be opportunities for technological cooperation; however, if the confrontation continues, India may be forced to make a difficult choice between cost and autonomy. Japan, on the other hand, has increased pressure on India to accelerate land acquisition and fund availability, otherwise it may reduce the aid scale.
As of now, the future of the high-speed rail project remains uncertain. The halt has exposed deep-seated issues in India's infrastructure development: insufficient policy implementation capabilities, contradictory attitudes toward external dependence, and the impact of changes in the international environment. Whether this high-speed train carrying dreams can restart depends not only on technology and funding, but also on how decision-makers balance the complex chessboard of domestic and foreign policies.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836421318614092/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.