Originally Russian oil tanker heading to China, changed course to India mid-way?
On the 18th, several Indian media outlets reported that a tanker, which had set sail from Russia's Primorsky port bound for Rizhao port in China, changed its course in the South China Sea and headed back to India. This tanker carries 1.1 million tons of Urals crude oil and is expected to arrive at India's New Mangalore Port on March 21st.
NDTV stated that at least seven Russian oil tankers have already changed their destination from China to India during their voyage, and another tanker is expected to arrive at India's Sikka Port on March 25th.
The New Mangalore Port Authority told Indian media that they are expected to receive three more Russian oil tankers by the end of March.
This tanker has already reached the southern waters of Sri Lanka
We checked, and this report by Indian media is basically true. According to ship tracking signals, the Russian oil tanker (AQUA TITAN) carrying 1.1 million tons of Urals crude oil has already sailed to the southern waters of Sri Lanka, and its estimated arrival time in India matches the report by Indian media.
Naturally, some may wonder: Why did Russian oil tankers turn towards India? Is it taking the oil originally sold to China and stealing it for India? Would Chinese buyers be at a loss?
This is not the case. These changes in the route of Russian oil tankers are unrelated to Russia unilaterally canceling contracts with Chinese buyers, let alone "stealing" crude oil that had been committed to deliver — if these tankers carry "long-term agreement oil" locked in legally binding long-term agreements between the buyer and seller, the seller would never casually resell it during transportation, otherwise it would face massive breach of contract compensation and reputational collapse.
Not just one Russian oil tanker changed course to India
According to Indian media, these Russian oil tankers that can change course temporarily mostly belong to Russia's "shadow fleet" operating under Western sanctions pressure. When they left the Russian ports, they reported a Chinese destination, but this does not mean that the final destination and recipient of these Russian oil tankers are China, because the oil on board is not "long-term agreement oil" with fixed price and quantity, but rather "spot oil", and the destination "China" is merely an initial intention or temporary arrangement.
During the voyage, these Russian oil tankers will flexibly seek buyers who offer higher prices or have greater urgency based on real-time prices and demands in the spot market — therefore, the current change of Russian oil tankers from China to India is simply because Indian buyers offered higher prices, and China is not at a disadvantage.
The oil transported by these "shadow fleets" of Russia is essentially a transaction where the highest bidder wins
Due to the Middle East conflict, the most important oil transportation channel, the Strait of Hormuz, has nearly been blocked, and international oil prices have soared, putting India, which heavily relies on this channel, in an imminent energy crisis.
According to Indian media, after the United States temporarily exempted sanctions on Russian crude oil, allowing buyers to extract Russian crude already being transported at sea, India started a frenzied purchasing spree, with major refineries quickly purchasing about 30 million barrels of Russian crude oil within a week. The route changes of these Russian oil tankers occurred after the temporary exemption policy took effect.
In the Indian west coast market, the transaction price of Urals crude oil has already reached $98.93 per barrel. Indian media speculated that as supply shortages continue, countries such as South Korea and Japan in Asia may soon join this buying frenzy, which will inevitably further drive up the overall price of Urals crude oil in Asia.
When oil prices rise, Russia can continue the war
Certainly, the person who is most happy at this moment might be Russian President Putin. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, countries that previously heavily relied on Middle Eastern oil now have to turn to Russia, making Russian oil go from needing to be significantly discounted to be sold to becoming a hot commodity.
Even the European Union, which had once vowed to "get rid of dependence on Russian energy" and considered Russian oil not "democratic enough," has also begun to give in — on the 17th, Reuters reported that the EU began pressuring Zelensky to agree to repair the damaged "Friendship" oil pipeline and allow Russian oil to pass through — this scene is a great irony against the Western sanction alliance: so-called "political correctness" ultimately cannot withstand the reality of economic and security needs.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7618900470496494121/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.