[By Guancha Observer Columnist Mind Observation Institute]
On July 8, 1853, more than ten years had passed since the First Opium War.
The tranquility of the Uraga Bay in Japan was shattered by four American steam warships. Their black hulls and smoke-belching chimneys terrified the Japanese people, who called them "black ships." These vessels were led by Commodore Matthew C. Perry of the United States Navy, who brought a letter from President Millard Fillmore, demanding that Japan end its two-century-old "closed country" policy.
The four warships—including the flagship USS Susquehanna and the USS Mississippi—were equipped with advanced steam propulsion systems and 64 Paxham cannons, far surpassing the firepower of Japan's wooden sailing ships. They symbolized the achievements of the Industrial Revolution and America's military confidence.
Since the 1630s, the Tokugawa shogunate had implemented strict isolation policies to maintain its rule and resist foreign religions and colonial forces. Only limited trade was allowed through Nagasaki's Dejima with China and the Netherlands, prohibiting Japanese citizens from traveling abroad or contacting foreigners.
Perry stood on the deck and declared to the shogunate officials: "The United States is determined to establish friendly relations with Japan and open its ports for our trade." He further clarified in official records: "The purpose of this expedition is to establish commercial relations with Japan and make the Japanese deeply realize the strength and importance of the United States." This statement revealed not only a trade goal but also the diplomatic confidence backed by America's industrial and military power.
The steamships and modern cannons brought by Perry were both technical symbols and military deterrents. Perry even threatened that if no agreement was reached, he would return with more ships to force the shogunate to submit.
Deeply shaken, the shogunate was powerless to resist. Abe Masahiro, the chief senior counselor of the shogunate at the time, once lamented: "When we saw the black ships, with smoke rising and cannon muzzles gleaming, we understood that isolationism could not withstand such power."
On March 31 of the following year, Japan was forced to sign the Treaty of Kanagawa, opening the ports of Shimoda and Hakodate, allowing the United States to establish consulates, and granting most-favored-nation treatment, marking the end of the isolation era. At that moment, the United States confidently,凭借 the achievements of the Industrial Revolution, forcibly opened Japan's doors and demonstrated its ambition as an emerging great power in global trade.
Time flows to April 2025, and history presents a dramatic reversal.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing high docking fees on Chinese ships entering U.S. ports, claiming that this move aimed to protect American economic interests and respond to the escalation of the Sino-U.S. trade war.
Don't think this is just Trump's impulsive idea. A report on the 301 investigation initiated by the Biden administration on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries was released before the change of government. The report argued that China's growing influence in areas like commercial fleets might impose additional burdens or restrictions on American businesses and the economy. Therefore, according to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, litigation against China can be initiated.
The report stated: "Today, the United States ranks 19th in the world in the commercial shipbuilding sector, building less than five ships per year, while China builds over 1,700 ships annually. In 1975, the United States ranked first, building over 70 ships per year."
The proposed American Shipbuilding Act goes even further: a 200% tariff on ships repaired in Chinese shipyards flying the American flag, and requiring that at least 10% of goods shipped to the U.S. from China be transported by ships built and registered in the United States within the next 15 years.
From Commodore Perry using "black ships" to force Japan to open its ports in 1853, to today's Trump era imposing port fees and high tariffs on Chinese ships, America's policies have shifted from promoting global free trade to isolationism and protectionism, which is regrettable. Japan's closed-door policy in 1853 stemmed from cultural caution and self-seclusion towards the outside world; now, facing the rise of China's shipbuilding industry, America similarly reveals a lack of confidence and retreat.
Perry's "black ships" once symbolized American strength and progress, whereas Trump's port fees now expose its weakness and anxiety in the face of China's "new black ships," reflecting the decline of America's global maritime supremacy and industrial strength.
This lack of confidence stems deeply from the vast gap between China and the United States in shipbuilding. According to relevant research reports, China accounts for more than 50% of the global commercial shipbuilding market, while the United States accounts for only 0.13%. China's shipbuilding capacity is approximately 232 times that of the United States. In 2024, China delivered 55.7 million DWT (deadweight tonnage), accounting for 55.7% of the global total; new orders amounted to 106 million DWT, accounting for 74.1% of the global total; and the backlog was 192 million DWT, accounting for 63.1% of the global total. By contrast, the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has a backlog of only 235,000 DWT, equivalent to the output of a single large shipyard in China, and almost entirely depends on domestic route demand stipulated by the Jones Act of 1920.
The decline of America's shipbuilding industry began with the deindustrialization wave in the second half of the 20th century. During World War II, the U.S. shipbuilding industry reached its peak, producing one 10,000-ton "Liberty Ship" every 28 hours, with an annual production of over 5,000 ships, supporting global transportation for the Allied forces. In 1975, the United States was still the strongest shipbuilding nation globally, with orders exceeding 70 merchant ships, employing 180,000 workers.
However, as manufacturing shifted to Asia, American shipyards lost competitiveness due to high labor costs (approximately 10 times higher than those of Chinese shipyards), aging facilities, and a lack of innovation. Between 1987 and 1993, the United States sold only eight merchant ships with a gross tonnage exceeding 1,000 tons, with the industry shrinking by over 70%. Today, the United States has only a few military shipyards, such as Newport News and Ingalls, primarily serving naval orders, but quality issues frequently arise. For example, in 2018, the USS Gerald R. Ford returned to port due to overheating bearings, and in 2023, welding problems at Newport News Shipbuilding exposed technical shortcomings.
In contrast, China's rise in shipbuilding benefited from a complete industrial system and policy support. Since the 2000s, China has integrated supply chains, increased R&D investment, and rapidly become the global leader through strategies like "Made in China 2025." In 2024, Chinese shipyards delivered multiple large luxury cruise ships, including the "Love Magic Shanghai," with a displacement of 135,500 tons, requiring 35,000 tons of steel, 4,000 kilometers of cables, and 2.3 million design man-hours, showcasing their complex engineering capabilities.
China also overcame key technologies for LNG carriers, such as Invar steel, breaking the monopoly of France's GTT company. In April 2024, China State Shipbuilding Corporation signed an order for 18 large LNG carriers with Qatar Energy, valued at $5.58 billion, setting a new global record for a single order. Additionally, China leads in green technology, with domestication rates exceeding 90% for methanol fuel ships and electric container ships, with export value growing by 58.7%.
This reversal in power dynamics mirrors the impact of Perry's "black ships" on Japan in 1853. Perry's steamships made Japan confront its technological backwardness, shaking the shogunate's confidence. Now, China's modern commercial fleet—from ultra-large container ships to LNG carriers—acts as a mirror, revealing the weakness of America's industrial foundation.
China's shipyard scale production and innovation are as shocking to American decision-makers as the "black ships" of old. Meanwhile, China's rapidly growing shipping industry cannot be ignored. China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company ranks among the top three global freight forwarders, helping China surpass Japan in 2024 to become the world's largest shipowner nation in terms of container capacity. Its cargo ships serve 160 countries and regions, connecting 1,500 ports worldwide, highlighting the rise of China's shipping industry and global trade influence.
In 1853, Japan's closed-door policy collapsed due to technological gaps and external pressures; today, America's protectionist measures also fail to cope with China's industrial advantages.
Trump's port fees and high tariffs, along with the 301 investigation launched in 2023 targeting China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, appear to protect domestic industries but are actually a panicked response to industrial decline. The 301 investigation report by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) accuses China of dominating the global shipbuilding industry through "unreasonable" policies, but it overlooks the root cause of America's deindustrialization.
American Secretary of State Rubio pointed out in his previous report, "The World China Made," that China achieved breakthroughs in shipbuilding steel, ship design, and intelligent manufacturing through "Made in China 2025." In 2024, China produced over 100 million tons of steel, accounting for more than half of the global total, while the United States produced only 80 million tons. China's deployment of 5G base stations (3.5 million vs. 100,000 in the U.S.) supports automated production in smart shipyards, further widening the gap.
America's attempt to revive the shipbuilding industry through high tariffs and subsidies has limited effects and may backfire. Adam Smith warned as early as 1776: "Prohibiting a great nation from fully utilizing its resources or applying capital and industry in the manner it judges most advantageous is a clear infringement on the most sacred rights of humanity." Trump's port fees and high tariffs not only raise domestic prices but also may weaken America's competitiveness in global trade.
While the Jones Act protects domestic routes in the U.S., it increases costs: the cost of transporting containers from Los Angeles to Hawaii is ten times that from Los Angeles to Shanghai, leading to high living costs in Hawaii. A 200% repair tariff and port fees will further increase shipping costs, potentially raising consumer prices in the U.S., with negligible impact on China.
History provides a warning: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 exacerbated the Great Depression by increasing trade barriers. Cordell Hull, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce, noted in 1995: "The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act raised trade barriers, deepened the Great Depression, and taught us that economic isolation brings hardship, not prosperity." Today's protectionism may repeat these mistakes.
In 2024, China's ship exports to the U.S. accounted for only 1% of its total exports, with diversified supply chains and over 90% domestication making it nearly immune to U.S. sanctions. Additionally, China's shipyards' orders mainly come from Asian, European, and Middle Eastern markets, such as Qatar's LNG carrier orders, demonstrating global competitiveness.
Deeper issues lie in the comprehensive shrinkage of America's shipbuilding industry—not just a technical problem but also a full-scale collapse of supply chains and talent. The U.S. shipbuilding industry suffers from the loss of skilled workers and supplier bankruptcies,陷入 a vicious cycle. A standard 3,000 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) container ship costs more to build in an American yard than a 24,000 TEU giant ship in China, yet takes longer to complete. By comparison, China relies on top institutions like Harbin Engineering University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, annually training thousands of professionals in naval architecture and ocean engineering, supporting continuous industry innovation.
Trump's port fees, on the surface, are economic protectionism, but in reality, they are a reflection of America's loss of confidence. In 2023, China's exports to the Global South surged, bypassing U.S. trade barriers through transshipment, demonstrating its flexibility. China's green investments, such as CATL battery factories in Hungary and BYD car factories in Brazil, further solidified its dominant position in the global supply chain.
Today, America's naval shipbuilding capability also worries Americans. In the 2025 fiscal year, the U.S. Navy plans to purchase only six ships while retiring 19, reducing the fleet size to less than 300, the lowest in 25 years. By contrast, China's navy surpassed the U.S. in number of ships in 2020, delivering several advanced destroyers and submarines in 2024. Defense News noted that the decline in naval shipbuilding capability makes it difficult for the U.S. to maintain global maritime supremacy, particularly in the face of China's challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.
"A nation that cannot produce its own ships, airplanes, and machinery is a nation that surrenders its sovereignty to others," President Eisenhower once warned. Perry declared America's rise in 1853 with the "black ships," showcasing confidence and strength from the Industrial Revolution; Trump admitted America's retreat in 2025 through port fees and high tariffs, exposing anxiety and helplessness in the face of China's "new black ships."
Historian Paul Kennedy pointed out: "The strength of a great power is directly related to its industrial capability. When a nation's manufacturing base erodes, its ability to project power and maintain global influence weakens." History shows that Japan achieved modernization after the "black ship" shock through the Meiji Restoration; now, if America does not face its shortcomings and revitalize its shipbuilding and industrial base, this self-imposed "new isolationism" will only accelerate the decline of its maritime supremacy, just as the Tokugawa shogunate faced its demise under the shadow of the black ships.
As for China's response to the tariff war, its performance reflects the diplomatic confidence of a major Eastern power backed by strength and industrial capability. At this moment, it mirrors the situation back then.
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