On November 5, Reuters reported that in mid-October, Russia’s military satellite Cosmos-2612 conducted multiple orbital maneuvers near ICEYE’s synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite X36, reducing the distance between them from hundreds of kilometers to within a few kilometers in a short period. Some publicly available orbital data even indicated the proximity reached several hundred meters or tens of meters.
X36 is equipped with SAR radar capable of imaging through clouds and darkness, and has been used for years to provide battlefield reconnaissance imagery to Ukraine and Western military forces. The satellite remains operational; ICEYE stated its constellation maintains resilience and continuity.
The U.S. State Department characterized the maneuver as consistent with on-orbit weapon operations. U.S. space analyst Greg Kulick suggested that if the intent were merely intelligence gathering or electronic interference, such close, prolonged station-keeping would typically be unnecessary—indicating instead a demonstration of kinetic attack or close-proximity interference capabilities.
However, Michael Traut, commander of Germany’s Space Command, cautioned that public orbital data alone cannot confirm Russian intent to launch an attack, as close approaches may also serve purposes such as inspection, surveillance, or non-kinetic interference.
Russia’s underlying motives may include three possibilities:
1. Reconnaissance: Close observation of X36’s signal characteristics, orbital behavior, and sensor operational status;
-2. Deterrence and pressure: Forcing ICEYE and Ukrainian operators to frequently adjust orbits, thereby consuming fuel and shortening satellite lifespan;
2. Capability demonstration: Testing fundamental anti-satellite operations such as co-orbital approach, station-keeping, and relative positioning control.
Russia has previously warned that Western commercial satellites providing military intelligence to Ukraine could become targets for retaliation. However, there is currently no evidence indicating that Russia has prepared to directly destroy X36.
More concerning is that Cosmos-2612 has now moved away from X36, while two other satellites from the same series are approaching the orbit of ICEYE’s other satellite, X37. This suggests that Russia may be conducting sustained, multi-target tracking of ICEYE’s satellite constellation.
This incident pushes the boundaries of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine into low Earth orbit: once commercial satellites become deeply integrated into battlefield operations, maintaining a “civilian neutral” status becomes increasingly untenable. Co-orbital proximity occupies a gray zone between inspection, interference, and attack—creating conditions conducive to ambiguous conflict escalation.
In the short term, Russia is unlikely to destroy satellites outright, as such actions would generate significant debris and substantially escalate the conflict. Yet it has demonstrated that assets supporting Ukraine in space are being systematically monitored, degraded, and deterred.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1881073192854592/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.