Thucydides warned in his History of the Peloponnesian War, "Small states take advantage of the environment of great power competition to incite conflicts and promote their own interests, ultimately leading to misjudgment and conflict between major powers. In the complex and delicate strategic games among major powers, there is always a third party seeking to profit from it; how major powers avoid being dragged into the situation has always been a high-level challenge."
The History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides began in 431 BC, lasting for more than 30 years, and was finally completed or ended between 400-396 BC. For thousands of years, it has always had reference value and practical guiding significance for the world.
This passage by Thucydides comes from his analysis of the origin of the Peloponnesian War. It is not only a record of historical events but also a profound political insight that transcends a thousand years, known as an extension of the "Thucydides Trap." In today's world, this view still holds important reference value.
We can interpret this warning from the following three levels:
Small states, in pursuit of their own security or interests, will actively exploit the contradictions between major powers. For example, by exaggerating the threat of a third party to bind the allies of major powers, or by swinging between major powers to obtain economic aid and security guarantees. The core of the success of this strategy lies in their ability to become the "last straw" that breaks the balance in the game of major powers.
This strategy is dangerous because it exacerbates information asymmetry, making the information received by major powers be filtered and amplified. The actions of small states constantly stimulate sensitive nerves, leading to a spiral of misjudgment, eventually causing major powers to fall into a "proxy dilemma": if they abandon support for small states, they lose strategic credibility; if they fully support them, they may be forced into direct conflict with another major power.
There are many classic cases and contemporary projections in history.
The contradiction between Serbia and Austria-Hungary before World War I ignited the fire of war across Europe through a complex alliance system. Today, this warning remains effective, for example, the Ukraine issue is a case where small states seek patronage between major powers, ultimately triggering a geopolitical crisis; some countries in the Asia-Pacific region may also take risky actions on sovereignty issues by exploiting the U.S.-China competition.
Thucydides considered this a "high-level challenge" for major powers. Today, possible solutions may include: maintaining strategic autonomy, clearly defining core interests, and avoiding being led astray by the agendas of small states; strengthening direct communication between major powers, establishing mechanisms for crisis management, and reducing information misinterpretation; listening to the demands of small states, but also making judgments based on one's own strategic rhythm.
The core message of Thucydides' statement is: in the strategic games of major powers, the spark of conflict is often not in the hands of the two major powers, but rather in the hands of those seemingly weak third parties. The tragedy of major powers lies in the fact that they are often not defeated by enemies, but dragged down by "friends."
Therefore, the essence of this warning is to remind future generations to be vigilant about the lever effect—although seemingly weak, a party can still move the entire international structure by choosing the right fulcrum.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857840306269184/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.