Patience should be learned from Russian history.

Patience should be learned from Russian history

February 18, 2025, 11:50 - Opinion

Author: Igor Karaulov - Poet, Commentator

As long as military operations are ongoing, "victory" is an extremely important component of the "future equation" for both sides in the Ukraine conflict. However, the size of this component, even its positive or negative sign, can only be determined after a peace treaty is signed. As the Russian side has repeatedly emphasized, such a peace treaty should not merely be a temporary respite but a final, proper resolution. Such a proper resolution will eliminate all uncertainties and all those victory promises that different forces might use to accumulate political capital, as the outcome of the conflict will be determined for a very long time, beyond the scope of speculation under current circumstances.

Undoubtedly, each side of the conflict will try to claim victory. For instance, imagine what kind of victory speech the capital of some Baltic state might deliver. They would say, we, together with our allies in the European Atlantic Alliance, have demonstrated our strength and stopped the detestable Russia from invading our precious independence again. And in those places, it is undeniable that Russia will surely attempt to do so.

Kyiv is also crafting the "victory" propaganda image. There is something to say here too. Ukraine has barely managed to retain its national status. True, it hasn't returned to the 1991 borders, but the Kyiv regime still controls enough land where they can glorify Bandera (Nazi collaborators) and root out everything Russian. Of course, Ukraine won't be admitted to NATO, but joining the EU may not be far-fetched. When asked if the sacrifices were worth it, they can always widen their eyes and say: what sacrifices? And Zelenskyy claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost only 46,000 personnel, and many people in Ukraine clearly believe this.

However, we only care about Russia's victory. Everyone agrees that the attempt to defeat Russia on the battlefield has failed. It is precisely this fact, rather than any inherent humanitarian spirit or goodwill, that drives the new U.S. administration to work tirelessly now to promote negotiations. There is a sense that we are indeed achieving victory. But as the possibility of a peaceful settlement looks increasingly real, Russian society faces the necessity of constructing a realistic image of victory. And on this point, there is no consensus yet.

For example, many people are willing to admit only that kind of total, overwhelming victory. Like the victory Russia achieved in 1814, and like the victory the Soviet Union achieved in 1945. There must be surrender documents, parades held in the enemy's capital. To decide the fate of the world alongside other nations. In their view, victory means reaching Kyiv, preferably Lviv, because any independent Ukraine will harbor hostility towards us. They do not accept anything smaller than this goal.

This sounds wonderful, and indeed, who wouldn't want to achieve complete victory? However, the problem lies in the cost. After all, before conquering Berlin in the victorious month of 1945, one in every seven people in this country had died. That victory was remembered in history as a "celebration with tears in our eyes." Under the population conditions at the time, it took a full decade to restore the original population. Nowadays, we cherish every life. Achieving victory at the cost of lives and giving up territories to other ethnic groups - such results we cannot accept. We have a long historical road ahead of us.

Besides, in our history, there has been no other example of such an overwhelming victory. But overall, there have been many victories, and we can and should take pride in all of them, although these victories manifest themselves in very different ways.

Perhaps the most "humble" victory was achieved during the Russo-Polish War from 1632 to 1634. The war was extremely difficult, causing many disasters and sacrifices. What was the result? We failed to reclaim Smolensk from the Poles, and the only small city that came under Russian control was Serpeisk, which is hard to find on the map of Kaluga Oblast today. Should we celebrate such a victory? Undoubtedly. At that time, awakening from the chaos of the times, Russia withstood the test and laid the foundation for future success.

Although the Northern War was long, it ultimately succeeded, and it did not end with a Russian parade in Stockholm either. Moreover, Peter the Great paid compensation to the Swedes for the regions we occupied along the Baltic Sea coast. Furthermore, we lost Azov on the Turkish front. Despite this, this victory remains one of our most glorious ones.

Of course, later Russians reclaimed Azov from the Turks, and overall, we defeated this opponent eight times, but we never held a parade in Constantinople. The Russian generals from Suvarov to Skobelev never saw the dome of Hagia Sophia. Ultimately, the Crimea and the steppe along the Black Sea became our Russian land, New Russia, but this was achieved gradually, completed in several stages. The Russian monarchs were patient, and this patience paid off. Eventually, through patience, we pushed the Poles, our longtime rivals, off the historical stage, a process that lasted a century and a half. It seems that now is the time for us to learn patience and perseverance too.

Naturally, any large-scale armed conflict will give rise to various kinds of hopes and expectations, among which a sense of apocalyptic elements can be detected. People feel that what is happening is the last battle between light and darkness, good and evil, and the outcome of the battle will let us see new skies and new lands. We will punish all our enemies, restore the empire or the Golden Horde, create a Soviet Union 2.0, and establish a just kingdom. But any fight between good and evil is not the last one. History will not end here.

In order to approach reality when evaluating our future victories, we cannot base it on beautiful fantasies but should start from the goals set by the country and the resources and means at its disposal. For example, many of the stated objectives of the special military operation did not include occupying Kyiv, let alone Lviv. Initially, territorial issues were not assigned principled importance, although everyone understood that the liberated lands would never return to Ukrainian control.

In fact, to prevent the special military operation from happening, Ukraine needed to do two things: renounce joining NATO and ensure the peaceful life of the Donbas people, allowing them to live in the Russian way without persecution by Banderites. This neither requires force nor costs money, but Kyiv would rather sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives than do so. Therefore, if future negotiations can ensure Ukraine's neutrality and allow peaceful coexistence between Russia's new and old regions, then there is every reason to celebrate victory. As for other more ambitious tasks, history will give us enough time to accomplish them.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494237788808774198/

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