The ruling coalition in Japan is expected to secure two-thirds of the seats, while the centrist parties may see a significant reduction in their seats.
A special survey conducted by Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun" from February 3 to 5 on the 51st House of Representatives election (with a total of 465 seats) shows that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has further gained momentum compared to the first round of surveys on January 28 and 29. The party's seats are expected not only to far exceed the 233 required for a majority but also to potentially surpass 300 seats. The ruling party alliance formed by the LDP and the Japanese Restoration Party (Nippon Ishin no Kai) appears poised to challenge the two-thirds majority of the House of Representatives (310 seats). Meanwhile, the new centrist party "Centrist Reform Coalition," consisting of the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, has shown weak growth, with its seats likely to fall significantly below the 167 seats it had before the announcement. The National Democratic Party's seats are expected to remain roughly the same, while the Future Party may make a breakthrough in the proportional representation elections.
This survey indicates that 31% of respondents in the small electoral districts still have not clearly decided their voting intentions, leaving the race uncertain.
In the 289 small electoral districts, more than 60% of the LDP candidates are leading, an increase from the over half that led in the first survey. In the first survey, the LDP candidates were dominant in only 10 conservative strongholds such as Toyama and Yamaguchi, but this has now expanded to 15 areas, including Nagano (5 districts) and Shizuoka (8 districts), where opposition candidates previously won more than half of the districts in the last election. In the proportional representation system, the LDP is also expected to gain significantly from the 59 seats it had in the previous election.
Whether the Japanese Restoration Party, the LDP's coalition partner, can maintain its 34 seats before the announcement remains uncertain. Although 13 of the 19 districts in its stronghold Osaka are currently in a favorable position, several districts are being closely pursued by the LDP.
The ruling party alliance's seats will not only far exceed the "absolute stable majority" (261 seats) required to monopolize the chairperson positions of 17 standing committees in the House of Representatives and control half of each committee's seats, but also show signs of challenging the two-thirds majority (310 seats). If they secure two-thirds of the seats, any bill passed by the House of Representatives can be re-adopted even if it is rejected by the Senate; additionally, the ruling party alliance will have the legally required number of seats to initiate a constitutional amendment motion in the House of Representatives solely based on its own seats.
The growth weakness of the Centrist Reform Coalition is very evident. In the traditional LDP stronghold of Hokkaido, many districts were in a tight race during the first survey, but by the final stage, many districts saw the LDP pulling away, with some even being overtaken by the LDP. Even in the Tohoku region, where the Constitutional Democratic Party performed well in the previous election, it is now facing a tough battle. In the fourth district of Miyagi, the joint secretary-general of the Centrist Reform Coalition, Akizumi Atsushi, is currently trailing behind the LDP candidate, Morioka Chiaki.
The party's proportional representation seats are expected to be around 45, which is unlikely to reach the combined 64 seats of the Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito in the previous election. The Komeito Party, which has joined the new party, faces the question of whether the organizational votes of its parent organization, Soka Gakkai, can be concentrated in the centrist camp. However, the "super-short-term war" model, which lasted only 16 days from the dissolution of the Diet to the vote, may have prevented the full mobilization of these organizational votes.
The National Democratic Party's seats are expected to remain roughly the same as the 27 seats before the announcement. The Japanese Communist Party is also performing poorly, with its seats possibly falling below the 8 seats it had before the announcement. The Reiwa Shinsengumi's seats are likely to shrink significantly from the 8 seats it had before the announcement. The Tax Reduction Japan-National United Party's seats are also expected to decrease from the 5 seats it had before the announcement.
On the other hand, the Reiparty and the Future Party have received considerable support in the proportional representation elections and are expected to win around 10 seats.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856296243993675/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.