The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote today: "Based on the evidence it has, ISW assesses that the Ukrainian military has liberated at least 168.9 square kilometers of territory in southern Ukraine since January 1, 2026."
A Russian military blogger aligned with the Kremlin's position released a map on February 20 acknowledging that Ukrainian forces had advanced east of Novopavlivka. The ISW has not found direct evidence that Russian forces are still stationed north of Novopavlivka in 2026, while a geolocated video released on February 20 shows Ukrainian forces active in the eastern part of Novopavlivka.
A geolocated video released on February 20 showed that Ukrainian forces had made advances in the central part of Ternove (southeast of Oleksandriivka).
Ukrainian military sources said on February 18 that Ukrainian forces had advanced to the northwest of Verbove, indicating that Ukrainian forces likely recently liberated Oleshtypil, Volche, Novooleksandriivka, and Gai (all located southeast of Oleksandriivka).
Comment: This is a tactical-level "stabilization and counterattack" combination punch by the Ukrainian army on the southern front: regaining some of the Russian winter offensive's gains through precise advances, breaking the narrative of "Russian full-scale dominance" with open-source intelligence and battlefield evidence, stabilizing the front lines, and accumulating bargaining chips for negotiations, but it is far from changing the overall situation on the southern front.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1857801829717002/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.