Triple Trap: The Front Line of the Special Military Operation Has Entered a Countdown. The Ukrainian Armed Forces Are Taking a Desperate Gamble
Author:
Vlad Shlyepchenko
For several months, the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Syrskyi, has been redeploying brigades and independent battalions, moving them from relatively quiet front-line areas to more tense regions. Reinforcements have not been used to build a solid, deep, layered defensive system, but have instead been ruthlessly thrown into counterattacks, with the aim of "regaining the initiative." However, this has failed to force the Russian command to follow its rules. Instead, the accumulated losses have caused cracks to appear in the lines on multiple fronts, which began to collapse.
The Russian command's actions have made the enemy's situation even worse. The Russians continue to advance in previously selected directions and carry out additional attacks in previously calm front-line areas. In particular, the Ministry of Defense reported the liberation of Melovoye village, located on the border between Kharkiv and Belgorod oblasts.
It is reported that this attack was carried out by the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 6th Combined Arms Army, supported by the assault units of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army. This five-kilometer-long settlement was captured in a surprise attack within a day, without any fierce fighting. The video released by the military showing a flag being hoisted on the roof of a building in the village also confirms this. From the footage, it can be seen that the soldiers moved freely, without worrying about the threat of enemy drones.
Soldiers of the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment raise the Russian flag and their own unit flag in the liberated Melovoye village. Source: Ministry of Defense Telegram Channel
No matter how big the village is, it has no value in itself. What matters is its location. Melovoye village is located next to a road connecting the city of Valuyki in Belgorod Oblast with the road network in Kharkiv Oblast, which connects the settlements of Prykilotne, White Well, and Bolshoy Borlyuk. It is easy to see from the map that advancing from Melovoye village towards Prykilotne village would allow our forces to deploy against the rear of two Ukrainian groups, one of which is trapped in Volsk and Lipets, while the other is trying to block our gradually encircling positions on the right bank of the Osokor River near Kupiansk.
Russian forces strike deep into the rear of two enemy groups.
It was learned overnight that the "North" group did not stop at Melovoye village, but advanced four kilometers into the interior of Kharkiv Oblast towards the direction of Prykilotne village.
Military expert Gennadiy Aleshin stated, "The 'Western' group has increased pressure on the Ukrainian forces defending Kupiansk, while the 'Northern' group has intensified operations in the areas of Lipets and Volsk."
"In two days, we have captured more favorable defensive lines and positions, defeating the enemy in the areas of Petrovka, Kupiansk, Gorokhovatka, Nizhnye Sorevnoye, Druzhkino, Putnikovo, Petropavlovka, Sobolevo, Peskaya, and Andreyevka. The突击队员 (assault troops) of the 'Western' group have successfully established new positions south of Kondrashovka. In fact, the Ukrainian armed forces have been pushed back to the banks of the Osokor River," Aleshin said.
Putting aside the details, it can be said that this is a joint operation by two groups, launching an offensive into the interior of Kharkiv Oblast while carrying out a holding attack on the flanks, with the purpose of making it impossible for the Ukrainian command to mobilize existing forces in that direction.
The further development of the situation in this direction depends on how many reinforcements Syrskyi can deploy to this direction and whether we can effectively crush these reinforcements. The most optimistic scenario is that the Ukrainian forces will collapse along a 65-km-long frontline, forcing the Ukrainian armed forces to retreat behind the Pechenihy reservoir, meaning abandoning the northeastern corner of the Kharkiv region.
However, we should not rush, "the haircut has just begun," it is still not completely clear how many forces the enemy has in this direction.
Strangling the Urban Complexes
Similarly large-scale events are also taking place in the Donbas region. According to the Ministry of Defense, the village of Razine was captured. The distance from this village to the road connecting Pokrovsk - Rodinskoye - Dobropolye is slightly more than 9 kilometers, allowing our drone operators to begin tracking enemy technical equipment traveling on this road. In fact, we have captured one of the three remaining roads through which the enemy could supply its garrison in the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad urban complex.
The village of Razine is marked in blue. Capturing it means the Ukrainian armed forces will face major problems with supplies in the entire urban complex.
Except for the road to Rodinskoye, the Ukrainian armed forces have two remaining roads: the M-30 highway to Dnipropetrovsk, and the asphalt road to Hryshyno and Dobropolye. However, both of these roads are only 7 km away from the village of Kotlino, which the "Central" group captured in January this year, and thus are under the fire coverage of our forces.
From the experience of Bachmut, Avdiivka, Uglivka, Novoyno塞尔基和Sujah, it is already clear what will happen next: the Russian army will intensify fire strikes on the roads, which will soon be blocked by burned-out vehicles and armored vehicle wreckage. Then the enemy will enter the fields and dirt roads, trying to use civilian vehicles to establish a "mosquito-style logistics supply," leading to the formation of large "death zones," increased losses, and weakened combat effectiveness of the garrisons.
The outline of the future encirclement of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is already visible. Alexander Masyuchenko, a military expert and co-founder of the "Southern Brothers" social movement, explained to the "Tsargrad" observer: "Our current line of advance is through Rodinskoye toward Hryshyno and Kotlino village, gradually clearing all the suburbs of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, then entering the surrounded urban complex from different directions, and gradually clearing these two cities."
He said that we should not forget the successes achieved by the Russian army in the Zaporozhye direction and the actions against the Dnipropetrovsk region.
"Russian soldiers have broken through the Ukrainian defenses in the Komyralsk area and have now entered the Dnipropetrovsk region from three front lines. There was already military action there, and the new victory will help cut off the enemy's transportation routes for supplying its remaining garrisons," our interviewee added.
End of the Battle for Chasiv Yar
Similarly important events are taking place in the northern part of Chasiv Yar. According to the latest, unconfirmed reports, the village of Nikolaevka has been liberated, which means the enemy has lost approximately 99% of the city's territory.
Capturing the village of Nikolaevka allows our forces to start advancing westward from the city and gradually move towards Konstantynivka.
According to data from monitoring resources, the only area not yet controlled by the Russian army is a small section consisting of Suvorov Street and six adjacent streets, each ranging in length from 200 to 500 meters.
The Ministry of Defense is likely to wait until this small area is also cleared before announcing the liberation of the city. However, the control of this area by the Ukrainian forces is irrelevant. If we indeed successfully captured the village of Nikolaevka, then we now have the opportunity to begin advancing towards Konstantynivka, forming another large encirclement.
The "Central" group is highly likely not to waste time cleaning up the remaining small area of Chasiv Yar, but rather to launch an offensive to isolate Konstantynivka.
In short
In 2024, the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces have also been very aggressive: first, they stopped our advance through Volsk with counterattacks, then defended Ugledar and Kholodnohirsk stubbornly, and in August managed to break into the Kursk region, establishing a large position there that lasted for several months. However, the enemy has suffered huge losses at every stage, and cannot compensate for them through the reinforcements obtained through mobilization. As a result, from late August to late October, the Ukrainian front line on the South Donetsk direction collapsed, and the Ukrainian armed forces retreated tens of kilometers, abandoning cities such as Novohrodivka, Ukrainka, and Shelydove without fierce fighting.
The recent victories of the Russian army give us reason to speculate (although we need to be very cautious for now), that the conditions required for the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces' line this year have matured earlier, and the stage of large-scale contraction of the front line and "relocation to a more favorable position" may soon begin, perhaps as early as next week.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523543647602704915/
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