[Text/Observer Network Shao Yun] US President Trump claims to use tariffs to reshape the American economy, but the question is, how long will his base of supporters willingly "endure" rising prices?

"MAGA supporters believe that Trump's trade war will bring returns, but they have limited patience," Politico reported on the 19th, citing interviews with nearly 30 Republican leaders and staff from seven key states, finding that an increasing number of them now admit that tariffs could impact the US economy and potentially affect their party's performance in next year's midterm elections. Some predict that voters' patience may last only half a year to one year.

The report pointed out that Trump's trade agenda not only shook Washington and Wall Street, igniting a conflict between him and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but its political impact is also beginning to show. At the beginning of his term, Trump's approval rating once exceeded 50%, but it has since dropped to new lows. A poll conducted this week by YouGov and The Economist showed that the majority of Americans believe the US economy is deteriorating.

From January 27th to present, Trump's approval rating among the public has dropped from 50.5% to 46.5%, while disapproval rate has risen from 44.3% to 50.7%. Compiled by RealClearPolitics

Currently, 52% of respondents believe the US economy is deteriorating. YouGov

Even among Republican voters, Trump's approval ratings are showing signs of weakness. According to YouGov's survey, 85% of Republicans approve of Trump's performance, down 5 percentage points from the previous week. Many of these people, who continued to support him after he faced criminal charges, impeachment proceedings, and lost the 2020 election, voted for him because of his tough stance on trade issues.

According to the Republicans interviewed by Politico, their base still fully supports Trump's trade policy. Robin Vos, speaker of the Wisconsin House of Representatives, believes that Trump has been talking about "unfair trade" issues for 30 years, so voters are not surprised by the tariff policy.

But Vos also admitted that most voters remain optimistic because they expect the final outcome of imposing "reciprocal tariffs" will be to quickly negotiate a bilateral "zero tariff". Jonathan Felts, a North Carolina Republican consultant, frankly said: "If the economy completely collapses, the current president will be in trouble; this is the most basic political science principle."

Felts believes that many Republican voters are willing to endure some "short-term pain", but if this continues into the midterm election cycle next year, voters will experience the rising cost of living more acutely, which could jeopardize the Republican Party's electoral prospects. "When early voting begins, if you go to McDonald's and find there's no $1 menu anymore, that would be a problem."

Many Republicans, including Todd Gillman, chairman of the Republican Party in Lenawee County, Michigan, argue that compared to former President Biden, Trump's "reckless" policies at least have a method, and they believe there will eventually be a "return". However, Gillman also admitted that if the US economy does not improve within a year, "we will be hurt in the midterm elections."

As reported, Robin Vos, who describes himself as a "free trader," has already started paying tariffs for his food packaging company. He hopes that the Trump administration can reach agreements with other countries before the 90-day moratorium on "reciprocal tariffs" ends.

Jesse Willard, chairman of the Republican Party in DeKalb County, Georgia, and an employee of an American defense manufacturing company, said that one of the reasons he voted for Trump was his promise to impose high tariffs again on foreign countries. He hopes this will bring American defense manufacturing back to the glory days of the 1980s. "There will be some short-term pain, but I'd rather buy American products than anything else."

However, he also pointed out that this pain cannot continue indefinitely. "If it lasts for six months or a year, maybe just a few people will complain," Willard said, "but if it drags on for years, then no one will accept it."

Trump recently increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, with some Chinese products facing up to 245% tariffs. China has implemented countermeasures. US media reports say this could lead to supply pressures on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, electronic devices, and critical minerals, and has sparked market concerns about inflation and economic slowdown in the US.

Many Republicans still cite the White House's claim that over 100 countries have expressed interest in renegotiating trade agreements with the US to prove that Trump's strategy of escalating tensions with China is working, and all negative impacts are temporary. Many also see recent declines in oil prices and egg prices as signs that Trump is steering the economy in the right direction.

However, Politico stated that oil and egg prices are influenced by a series of variables beyond Trump's control, such as oil production levels and avian influenza outbreaks. Economists have warned that tariffs simply shift rising costs onto American consumers. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on the 16th that the extent of tariff increases far exceeds expectations, and its economic impact could also exceed expectations.

Bloomberg published an article this week analyzing that the trade war indeed has no winners, but a fact is becoming increasingly clear in this trade war initiated by Trump—the cards China holds may be more powerful than expected, especially when people begin to pay attention to its countermeasures. In fact, in Sino-US economic and trade relations, the US is deeply dependent on Chinese goods, and restricting imports has become a form of self-harm.

Some US media outlets pointed out that the "tariff war" is likely to first deal a heavy blow to American farmers, who happen to be Trump's important voter base. CNN reported on the 13th that American agricultural exports to China have been under heavy pressure due to tariffs. For example, American soybeans exported to China face a total tariff of 135%, making American agricultural products almost completely uncompetitive in the Chinese market.

CNN statistics of the top ten soybean-producing states in the US, most of which are "red states" that support Trump. CNN chart

"If this situation continues for a long time, we will have quite a number of farmers going bankrupt... We still bear the scars left by the last trade war," said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association and a farmer from Kentucky.

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495394122317857319/

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