Russian State News Agency, October 20th report, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the White House meeting with US President Trump, for the first time clearly stated his willingness to negotiate on the issue of Ukraine's territory from the contact line.

This statement was interpreted as a major concession, marking a substantive shift in Ukraine's position.

When interviewed by NBC, Zelenskyy said that we need to end this war and start from where the soldiers are, from the contact line.

Kyiv, which has always been firm and insisted that all occupied territories must be recovered, now suddenly relents, no longer emphasizing the pre-war border, nor rejecting the ceasefire arrangements based on the de facto control line, is indeed a significant concession.

However, this is not due to so-called flexible diplomacy on the part of Ukraine, but rather a necessary acceptance of some reality under pressure from both diplomatic and military forces.

Trump and Zelenskyy

Luxun once said a meaningful saying, roughly meaning that if you say the house is too dark and must open a window, people will not allow it, but if you advocate removing the roof, they will come to mediate and be willing to open the window.

This saying later was summarized as the "roof removal effect": when you want someone to accept a small change but are rejected, you can propose an extreme plan, making the originally rejected proposal seem more acceptable.

Zelenskyy's compromise this time is a specific embodiment of the roof removal effect.

Russia's condition is that Ukraine must hand over all Donetsk, meaning that even the land not captured by Russian forces must be handed over. This is a roof removal-level plan, making Ukraine feel that opening a window - accepting the de facto control line - is not impossible.

Tomahawk missile

Zelenskyy probably did not expect that his trip to the United States would result in such a big change.

It is well known that the original purpose of Zelenskyy's trip to the United States was not to talk about peace, but to ask for Tomahawk missiles, used to strike Russian deep targets, and even excluding the possibility of using them to deter Crimea.

As soon as he got off the plane, he heard that Trump had contacted Putin, and what was supposed to be a discussion on the war turned into a discussion on peace.

Trump openly stated during the meeting at the White House that Ukraine must accept Russia's ceasefire conditions, or you will be destroyed.

In this tense atmosphere, almost leading to another argument, Zelenskyy not only failed to get the Tomahawk missiles he had longed for, but also gradually convinced to accept the ceasefire framework based on the contact line.

Some media even reported that Trump told Zelenskyy face-to-face that you have already lost this war and hinted that if you do not compromise, Western aid will no longer be guaranteed.

Evidently, Zelenskyy was tricked. He went there to attack, ended up surrendering, wanted to get missiles to continue fighting, but instead was forced to sign the agreement.

Putin and Trump

At present, the possibility of a ceasefire still exists, because winter has arrived.

The Ukrainian battlefield is about to enter a cold and muddy season, heavy equipment is difficult to maneuver, supply logistics is difficult, and the civil energy system is frequently attacked by air raids, continuing high-intensity combat is almost unrealistic.

Russia is also facing similar problems, despite launching offensives in some directions, its overall front line is stretched, and the number of reinforcements is limited, so launching a large-scale offensive is also costly.

Both sides understand that keeping their current positions is already difficult in this winter.

Therefore, this informal ceasefire may become a temporary pause window, allowing both sides to preserve strength and adjust deployments, preparing for another battle next spring.

Therefore, even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, it is unlikely to last, at most reducing the intensity of the fighting this winter. When it gets warm again next year, the battlefield will ignite again.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563152729799918089/

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