Critical Metals: Expert: Record High Refined Copper Output in China Will Not Lead to a Decline in Market Prices

Olga Mukhamedova, a researcher at the Laboratory for Best Practices Analysis of the Gaidar Institute, told Sputnik that the market has become accustomed to high refined copper production in China and will react mildly to yet another record - it is expected that copper prices will at least not fall.

Bloomberg cited data from China's General Administration of Customs on Monday, reporting that China's refined copper output reached 1.248 million tons in March, up 8.6% year-on-year, setting a new historical record.

Mukhamedova commented on the customs data by saying, "China set a refined copper production record of 1.24 million tons as early as December last year; therefore, the market reaction to sustained growth will be relatively mild, and prices will not decline. For comparison, the average price of copper futures in Shanghai for March was 79,675 yuan per ton (10,890 USD), while now it is 78,640 yuan per ton (10,750 USD)."

In addition, according to the assessment of the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), China's overall copper smelting volume increased by 2% in the first two months of this year. If India and Indonesia's data growth is taken into account, this remains within the global average of 2.7%.

She pointed out that China continues to hold its position as one of the world's top five copper producers.

Mukhamedova concluded, "However, any fluctuation in the global copper market - including news of China continuously breaking production records - draws attention because since March, there has been persistent speculation in the market about the US potentially imposing additional tariffs on copper imports."

On April 2nd, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on imported goods, with the comprehensive rate targeting China reaching as high as 54%. This move led to a sharp escalation of the trade war between the two countries. Currently, Chinese exports to the US face a 145% tariff, while American goods exported to China also face a tariff rate of 125%.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830240747284490/

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