[Source / Observer Network Zhang Jingjuan] According to a report by the National Broadcasting Company (NBC), Raymond Thomas Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, issued warnings regarding U.S. tariff policies and increasing debt during an interview on the 13th.

In an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press," he stated that if President Trump does not handle tariff and other economic issues properly, he is concerned that the U.S. economy may fall into a situation "worse than a recession."

"We are currently at a critical decision point, very close to an economic recession. If handled improperly, I am worried about a situation worse than a recession," Dalio replied when host Kristen Welker asked whether the U.S. would enter a recession due to Trump's tariff policies.

He then added that a recession usually refers to two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and whether there is a slight decline. We often encounter such situations. However, we face more profound problems now. We are facing the collapse of the monetary order. We need to change the monetary order because we cannot spend so much money."

Dalio also mentioned that domestic and global orders are undergoing profound changes.

"This situation is very similar to what happened in the 1930s. I have studied history; this happens repeatedly," Dalio referred to tariffs, increased debt, and "the rise of nations challenging the existing hegemon" as "very, very destructive" changes, stating that how these changes are addressed will determine whether the outcome is far worse than an economic recession or can be properly managed.

He further noted that so far, the Trump administration has been handling economic issues destructively, with Trump's policies being like "throwing stones into the machine," which significantly affects the efficiency of the global economy, with enormous costs.

Dalio once again warned about the loss of control over debt scale, excessive borrowing growth, and the manufacturing downturn leading to dependence on other countries for necessary items. However, he pointed out that this situation "can be well controlled."

He called on Congress to intervene and reduce the federal government's budget deficit to 3% of GDP.

"If they (legislators) do not do this, we will face problems related to the supply and demand of debt along with other issues, and the consequences will be worse than a normal economic recession," Dalio said.

When asked about his anticipated "worst-case scenario" for the U.S., Dalio expressed concerns about sharp fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate, domestic conflicts that violate conventional democratic principles, and "international conflicts or even military conflicts that could severely disrupt the global economic order."

According to The Guardian, during the interview, when asked whether he believed Trump's tariffs had exacerbated the "complex challenges" faced globally, Dalio stated that the U.S. indeed needs to rebuild its manufacturing sector and expand employment opportunities. However, he emphasized the importance of how this is achieved. "Whether it is done in a pragmatic way, a stable way, or through 'high-quality negotiations' rather than in a chaotic and destructive manner...this will produce completely different results and alter the face of the world."

Dalio interviewed on NBC NBC

At 75 years old, Dalio is renowned for applying historical lessons to investment decisions. He predicted the 2008 global financial crisis based on past crises and made substantial profits while other hedge funds struggled.

Last week (April 7th), before Trump announced on the 9th that he was deferring the imposition of so-called "reciprocal tariffs," Dalio published a lengthy article reminding investors not to narrowly focus on tariffs.

He pointed out that the U.S. is deeply entrenched in a vicious cycle of "borrowing to sustain excessive spending." The current international geopolitical order is collapsing because the era where the U.S. commands other countries to follow its order has ended, and multilateral cooperation is threatened by unilateralism. This shift is evident in America's current trade war, tech war, and even localized military conflicts.

Dalio stated that large-scale "reciprocal tariffs" are just one aspect of the "collapse of major currency, political, and geopolitical orders," which happens "once in a lifetime." However, historically, under similar unsustainable conditions, this has occurred many times. Investors who ignore fundamental structural contradictions may overlook the impending greater shocks in the future.

On the 9th, Dalio also posted on social platform X, urging Trump to reach an agreement with China on tariff issues.

He believes this is an opportune moment for all parties to reconsider their approaches. He stated that there are "good and bad ways" to address tariff disputes, and that "President Trump deciding to abandon the bad approach and resolve imbalances through negotiation is the better method."

Dalio wrote that he "hopes and expects" Trump to "take similar measures" with China, including reaching a "win-win" agreement through negotiation to resolve disputes over debt, trade, and other issues between the two countries.

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Observer Network and cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493146973034250793/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author. Feel free to express your stance by using the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.