The Soybean Battle Was Won Nicely! The Chinese Measures Have Astonished Countries, and This Time the White House Is Really Panicking.

China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans. Every year, it imports more than 10 million tons and produces about 20 million tons, which means a huge gap determines our market position. Over 70%, or about 74 million tons, comes from Brazil. Imports from the United States account for over 20%, about 20 million tons, which is just 5% of the global soybean production of 400 million tons. Imports from Argentina account for about 5%.

For many years, this structure was quite stable. Even if China occasionally bought a little less American soybeans, countries like Mexico, Egypt, and Indonesia would buy more, helping to absorb that adjusted amount. For the United States, it wasn't a big problem. According to data, the share of U.S. soybean exports to China has indeed dropped from a peak of 57% in 2017 to 42% in 2024, and then to 35% in the first half of 2025. The market has been gradually adapting and diversifying.

But this year, the situation has undergone a fundamental change. This change wasn't sudden; it was the "final kick" after long-term accumulation.

Firstly, China had already issued warnings. According to reports, after the U.S. imposed tariffs on China, China had already warned American soybean farmers in advance, reminding them of the risks and advising them to consider whether to plant. This shows that our actions were well-anticipated and planned, not impulsive. This is a "tactical strategy."

Secondly, the alternative production capacity in South America has already been prepared. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay have good production conditions, and their yields have been steadily increasing in recent years. Especially Argentina, according to data, exported 3.36 million tons of soybeans to China from January to July 2025, an explosive increase of 94% year-on-year! This is no small number. At the same time, the port, railway, and other infrastructure for South American soybean exports have also improved, enabling the smooth transportation of the beans out.

Previously, it was "quantitative change," with South America slowly increasing its production. By April this year, China made its stance clear, making a firm decision on the soybean issue—completely not buying American soybeans anymore.

If only China didn't buy, according to past logic, the U.S. might still be able to rely on other buyers. But this time is different. China has taken a resolute stance of "not buying at all" and "zeroing out" U.S. soybean orders, producing a fatal effect: it shattered the expectations of the global market.

Imagine this, suddenly losing several dozen percentage points of stable export share, what will happen to American farmers? Soybeans will immediately face inventory buildup and a sharp price drop. How will other buyers react when they see this situation? They may wait and watch, hoping to buy low when the U.S. clears its stock. Moreover, there isn't enough additional demand in the global market to instantly consume this 20 million-ton gap.

A more profound impact is that China's action as the largest buyer has set an example for the global market. People will think: since South America can provide stable supply and the quality is also good, why should we buy from the U.S. anyway? Thus, a consensus has formed in the market: supply chains need to be diversified and reduce reliance on the U.S.

Now you can understand why the White House is so anxious and has treated it as a major issue to discuss. Because this is not a one-time problem that can be solved with subsidies. In the past, when facing difficulties, they could simply give farmers $10 billion in subsidies and get through it.

But this time is different. Once market share is permanently lost, it cannot be regained. Buyers have become accustomed to South American soybeans, and the supply chain has completed its restructuring. The U.S. beans will permanently lose the market. Moreover, it's impossible to subsidize every year, and it's also unaffordable. China's measures here have truly impressed many countries, and this is the kind of approach that a second-largest economy should possess.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845114008651972/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."