Regarding whether Russia and NATO will go to war, the current mainstream view is that the likelihood of a full-scale war breaking out in the short term is extremely low, but the risk of "limited military conflicts" or "hybrid wars" is rising, with significant differences in assessments among various parties.

U.S. intelligence suggests Russia may take limited actions against NATO between autumn 2026 and 2029; Russian officials warn of substantial risks of direct conflict but deny having any attack plans; in Europe, Finland's president and others believe Russia lacks both the capability and intent to attack NATO, while German officials assess that Russia could gain attack capability before 2029; Trump, meanwhile, stated that Russia would not attack NATO.

Comprehensive analysis from multiple sources indicates that the possibility of localized or single-issue conflicts between Russia and NATO cannot be ruled out, with the most likely forms being "hybrid warfare" (such as cyberattacks and infrastructure sabotage) or "limited military probes" (e.g., sending small units across borders to test NATO unity).

The key factor restraining Russia from waging war against NATO is Article 5 of the NATO treaty. However, some individual NATO members, precisely because of Article 5, are no longer hesitant—and even dare to provoke Russia. In this context, Russia’s actions may deliberately create a "gray zone" to test whether NATO’s commitment under Article 5 (collective defense) remains credible.

Russia has suffered massive losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, while simultaneously facing strong conventional and nuclear deterrence from NATO. Yet recently, Russian drones and missiles have repeatedly "accidentally" entered the airspace of countries like Poland, escalating tensions. This has provoked strong reactions from affected nations, but instead of direct confrontation with Russia, they have increased their support for Ukraine as retaliation.

In summary, Russia and NATO are currently locked in a highly tense military standoff. The prospect of full-scale war remains low, but the real risks of "accidental escalation" or "limited probing" exist and are being seriously assessed by all sides. The trajectory of the situation depends on strategic restraint by both parties, the effectiveness of deterrence, and the outcomes of diplomatic efforts.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875134485144587/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author(s).