Trump has repeatedly boasted before and after taking office that he could quickly end the Ukraine-Russia war, but this goal has not been achieved to date for a variety of reasons, mainly including the following points:
One, Trump's overconfidence and excessive self-interest
• Firstly, Trump overestimated his own capabilities, unaware that without fully understanding the true situation of both warring parties, knowing Putin and Zelenskyy's real needs, and truly understanding the thoughts of European countries, he rashly boasted that he could handle everything with his personal power.
• More importantly, he was too self-interested. In front of the whole world in the White House, he attempted to use a businessman's mindset and ethics to exert maximum pressure on Zelenskyy, believing that Zelenskyy would be willing to hand over all of his country's rare earth industries as compensation. Although Vice President Vance supported him, Zelenskyy showed no "consideration" or "practicality," and despite all efforts to persuade him, it was to no avail. With no cards left to play, he exposed his domineering, greedy, and laughable face to the world, which backfired and made him a laughingstock to the public.
Two, Trump's strategy lacks operability
• Trump once claimed that he could end the war within "24 hours." His team proposed a tentative plan, including freezing Ukraine's NATO membership and recognizing Russia's occupation of certain territories, but never disclosed any specific plans. All these proposals were strongly opposed by Ukraine.
• Although Trump tended to force Kyiv to compromise by exerting pressure, reducing, or even completely stopping military aid, this might worsen the situation in Ukraine rather than promote peace.
Three, the huge differences between Russia and Ukraine
• Putin has always believed that this war is not just a warning against Zelenskyy's thoughtless neutrality and non-membership in NATO, but NATO has also gone all out, expanding eastward and blocking large armies at Russia's doorstep, leading to this war.
• To this day, Putin demands recognition of Russia's control over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, with the ultimate goal of weakening Ukraine's sovereignty so it cannot become an independent nation.
• However, Ukraine's constitution already stipulates that Ukraine must join the EU, which directly conflicts with Russia's demands. Zelenskyy refuses any agreement involving territorial concessions and insists that Ukraine must participate in any negotiations, while also demanding continued Western military assistance to maintain resistance.
Four, the inconsistent positions of Europe and the U.S.
• Trump once expressed support for European countries sending troops to Ukraine, but Germany, Poland, and other countries clearly refused, showing a rift within the transatlantic alliance on the issue of Ukraine.
• European countries such as Germany and France are extremely dissatisfied with Trump's unilateral negotiation approach, fearing that sacrificing Ukraine's interests will fuel Russia's expansionist ambitions.
Five, Russia's delay in ending the war
• Putin uses military actions to consolidate occupied areas, weaken Ukraine's long-term morale, exploit Western fatigue from aid, or take advantage of factors like internal political turmoil in the U.S. or prolonged Middle Eastern wars to gain more favorable negotiation terms, unwilling to rush into an agreement.
• Russia relaxes nuclear weapon usage conditions and other nuclear deterrence policies, increasing negotiation complexity by using energy and oil price hikes to pressure the West.
Six, Zelenskyy's domestic political pressure
• Ukrainian citizens no longer trust Russia, although they yearn for peace, most oppose territorial concessions.
• Zelenskyy faces pressure from domestic hardliners; any agreement he makes might be seen as surrender, potentially triggering political instability or internal division. Therefore, he constantly walks a tightrope, trying to salvage the situation.
Seven, the conflict between Trump's diplomatic style and reality
• Trump's America First policy has caused distrust among European allies, weakening the collective negotiation leverage of the West.
• Trump tends to handle international issues with a transactional mindset, but the Ukraine-Russia war involves geopolitical, historical grievances, and security architecture, far beyond simple commercial negotiations.
In conclusion, any possible ceasefire agreement still requires participation from all parties, especially Ukraine, Europe, and even China, and Trump's administration's strategy still needs more specific coordination and compromise.
The core interests of both Ukraine and Russia are difficult to reconcile, the divergence of positions among European allies, and Russia's strategic delay make quick peace impractical.
Trump failed to quickly end the Ukraine-Russia war mainly because the complexity of the conflict far exceeded his simplified campaign promises.
Author: Huo Wenxiang
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493712845759873586/
Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the 【Upvote/Downvote】buttons below.