The Strait of Hormuz has been closed again—how will Trump respond?
Due to U.S. airstrikes and Israel's failure to halt its aggression against Lebanon, Iran announced on the 11th a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, banning all vessel passage.
It should be said that this development was not unexpected. Previously, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran had stalled over several key issues, prompting Trump to grow visibly impatient and attempt to force Iran into quick concessions through "fighting to negotiate."
But Iran is not intimidated by such tactics. The blockade order issued on the 11th directly targeted Trump’s Achilles’ heel: if the Strait of Hormuz were to close, the global oil lifeline would be severed, causing oil prices to surge and directly undermining the U.S. economy and Republican Party’s midterm election strongholds.
Currently, Trump has few viable solutions to deal with Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Unless he dares to send U.S. forces to forcibly break through, there is little he can do.
Thus, all Trump can currently do is maintain appearances—making public statements like “We’re extremely close to a deal, just need them to sign,” while defiantly asserting in front of cameras that the Strait of Hormuz “is still effectively open” and that the U.S. “has been continuously shipping oil out—millions of barrels, something Iran didn’t even know about”—in an effort to stabilize markets.
But rhetoric is one thing; markets don’t believe it. According to Reuters, after Iran announced the renewed closure of the strait, international crude oil prices immediately jumped by $2.
In fact, Trump’s visible frustration reveals the utter failure of U.S. Middle East policy. Attempting to intimidate others with airstrikes only resulted in Iran retaliating by cutting off the strait’s throat; trying to distance himself from Israel’s mess has instead drawn him deeper into the quagmire. This hole may now be impossible to plug.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867677164531712/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.