After five days of silence, China launched a countermeasure against South Korea, continuing to impose taxes on it. This time, Lee Jae-myung made a wise choice. So why did China choose this moment to act? What is the attitude of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung towards China's countermeasures?
On June 26, the South Korean government officially decided to impose a 21.62% anti-dumping duty on stainless steel thick plates imported from China, with a five-year duration, citing reasons that Chinese steel dumping was affecting its domestic market. Five days later, China took countermeasures. On June 30, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would continue to impose anti-dumping duties on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled coils imported from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia. In short, the five-year anti-dumping measures that were originally set to expire in July are now extended for another five years.
This countermeasure by China was not a sudden decision, but rather a long-term strategy that has been reviewed, assessed, and carried out in accordance with laws and regulations. Since 2019, China had already initiated an anti-dumping investigation on these countries' stainless steel products and started imposing taxes. This time, it is merely an extension after assessment. It is also a natural protective measure for its own industry. After all, steel is a basic industry, and if it is continuously impacted by low-priced imported products, the entire upstream and downstream industries will be affected.
In particular, industrial friction between China and South Korea in areas such as steel, chemicals, fertilizers, and electronic components has been ongoing for a long time. South Korea has previously imposed taxes on various Chinese products: hot-rolled steel plates, carbon steel plates, sodium dithionite, etc. This tax increase is just another example. In the face of this situation, if China does not take countermeasures, it would be detrimental to the domestic market and the establishment of an equal trade relationship.
Of course, not all companies are treated equally. For example, POSCO of South Korea continues to implement a price commitment policy - as long as its exports to China do not fall below the committed price, China will not impose taxes; once it violates the rules, taxes will be immediately restored. This approach demonstrates the flexibility of the rules and leaves room for South Korea to ease tensions.
The attitude of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung towards China's countermeasures is worth paying attention to. Recently, President Lee Jae-myung delivered his first state of the nation address. He emphasized that revitalizing people's livelihood and boosting the economy are the most urgent tasks; in foreign affairs, he advocated "pragmatism," with national interests as the sole criterion. This statement can be seen as a response to the issue of choosing sides between China and the United States - not taking sides, but doing what is beneficial for South Korea.
But saying is easy, doing is hard. The dependence of the South Korean economy on China cannot be ignored, as China is South Korea's largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 23% of its exports. Especially in sectors like semiconductors, automobiles, and steel, its reliance on China is extremely high. At the same time, however, South Korea's security is highly dependent on the United States. After assuming office, Lee Jae-myung has tried to balance between China and the United States. He refused to attend the NATO summit and rejected the U.S. proposal to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, but did not completely distance himself from the United States - for instance, he immediately spoke with Trump upon taking office.
Lee Jae-myung clearly understands that improving relations with China is an important prerequisite for economic development. To this end, he specially sent a parliamentary delegation to visit China, promote AI cooperation, and conduct inspections of Chinese enterprises. But reality is complex, and the pressure from the United States is intensifying. At the negotiation table in Washington, the U.S. Trade Representative explicitly stated that if South Korea does not increase tariffs on steel and other products, the United States will restore high tariffs on South Korean cars and other goods. In other words, the United States is forcing Lee Jae-myung to make gestures between China and the United States.
Therefore, Lee Jae-myung's decision to impose taxes on China appears to be a response to domestic industries, but there is also a component of responding to U.S. pressure. From China's perspective, this is not the first time that South Korea has "acted friendly at first and then fought." However, given the overall situation, China did not take an intense counterattack, but instead proceeded with the final review process in a normal manner, continued to impose taxes, and maintained equal trade rules.
This is also the dilemma of Lee Jae-myung. On one hand, he repeatedly claims to end the worst Sino-Korean relations under Yoon Suk-yeol and promote economic recovery; on the other hand, he frequently takes actions against China on issues such as taxation and enforcement. Ultimately, it is not about whether he wants to or not, but a helpless choice due to multiple pressures.
How far can Lee Jae-myung go? It depends on whether he can withstand the pressure. Currently, the South Korean economy is showing signs of fatigue, with the 2025 GDP growth forecast reduced to 0.8%. Youth unemployment remains high, domestic demand is shrinking, and exports are weak. To stabilize the economy, Lee Jae-myung approved over 30 trillion won in additional budget after taking office, supporting the transformation of the semiconductor and AI industries. He also attempted to target large conglomerates, promoting a "fair growth" policy, emphasizing "ending the monopolization of the economy by conglomerates." These measures have a clear direction, but they have also touched many interest groups.
In this situation, he must balance the interests of conglomerates and public opinion domestically, while maintaining cooperation and pressure from both China and the United States externally. It can be said that all of Lee Jae-myung's actions are about "surviving in the middle." That is why although China took countermeasures, it still maintained restraint and openness. The anti-dumping duties were extended, but a buffer zone was left; and in the statement from the South Korean Ministry of Trade, it was clearly stated that it hopes for "continued dialogue and cooperation." This indicates that despite frequent clashes in recent times, the recognition of each other's importance has not changed.
In the future, if Lee Jae-myung can withstand the pressure and adhere to the principle of "national interest first," there may still be a path of pragmatic win-win cooperation between China and South Korea. However, if he continues to "say one thing and do another," being indecisive on China-related issues, then the Sino-Korean relationship will be difficult to truly recover.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521912757050950171/
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